Turkey vs United States Picks, Predictions & Betting Odds: World Cup 2026 Preview

Turkey vs United States | FIFA World Cup 2026 Group D | Thursday, June 25, 2026 | Kickoff: 7:00 PM PT | SoFi Stadium, Los Angeles (Inglewood) | TV: Fox, Telemundo

• Group D standings going in: United States 1st (6 pts, +5 GD) | Australia 2nd (3 pts) | Paraguay 3rd (3 pts) | Turkey 4th (0 pts, -3 GD)

Why This Game Matters

The United States enters Matchday 3 already through to the Round of 16 after back-to-back wins, and a victory here would secure top spot in Group D. For Turkey, the mathematics are brutal: two defeats and no goals scored means this is effectively a knockout game, with a win the only result that keeps qualification hopes alive and a draw almost certainly not enough given the goal difference deficit.

Our Pick

The United States to win is the call, with the hosts already through and Turkey yet to score a goal at this tournament. At -105 with BetOnline, backing the United States on the money line represents fair value against a Turkey side that has been shut out in both group games.

Turkey vs United States: Preview, Picks & Betting Odds

Turkey returns to the World Cup for the first time since finishing third in 2002, but this tournament has been a sobering reintroduction. Losses of 2-0 to Australia and 1-0 to Paraguay, with zero goals scored, leave head coach Vincenzo Montella with no margin for error. The squad boasts genuine quality across the pitch, including Arda Guler of Real Madrid, Kenan Yildiz of Juventus, and captain Hakan Calhanoglu, but the final third has been alarmingly quiet.

The United States has been the story of Group D. A 4-1 demolition of Paraguay was followed by a controlled 2-0 win over Australia, and head coach Mauricio Pochettino now has the luxury of rotating ahead of the knockout rounds. Christian Pulisic leads a forward line that includes Folarin Balogun, who has scored twice in the group stage, and Giovanni Reyna, who has added one more. The hosts carry real threat at this venue and in front of what will be a partisan home crowd.

The tactical tension here is whether Turkey can find an attacking performance that has eluded them entirely so far, while the United States decides how aggressively to press for a result that cements first place. Turkey’s qualifying campaign showed attacking capability, including a 6-1 win over Bulgaria, but European qualifiers and a World Cup group stage are very different propositions. The price on Turkey at +260 reflects a genuine underdog, not a mispriced one.

Recent Form & Trends

Turkey’s last five matches:

• Paraguay (H) – Lost 0-1 (World Cup 2026)
• Australia (A) – Lost 0-2 (World Cup 2026)
• Venezuela (N) – Won 2-1 (Friendly)
• North Macedonia (H) – Won 4-0 (Friendly)
• Kosovo (A) – Won 1-0 (World Cup Qualification)

Turkey’s competitive form is a concern. Both World Cup defeats were clean sheets against opponents who, in turn, have been beaten by the United States. The friendly wins over Venezuela and North Macedonia offer limited reassurance, and the side has yet to threaten in any meaningful way when facing tournament-calibre opposition.

United States’ last five matches:

• Australia (H) – Won 2-0 (World Cup 2026)
• Paraguay (H) – Won 4-1 (World Cup 2026)
• Germany (H) – Lost 1-2 (Friendly)
• Senegal (H) – Won 3-2 (Friendly)
• Portugal (H) – Lost 0-2 (Friendly)

The United States has been a different side in competitive action. Both World Cup wins were convincing, and the 6-1 goal aggregate across those two games signals that this attack is functioning well. The pre-tournament friendlies showed vulnerabilities that the tournament itself has not yet exposed.

Turkey vs United States History & H2H Trends

These sides have met five times in total, with the record showing two United States wins, one Turkey win, and one draw across the four meetings since 1991. The most recent encounter was a 2025 friendly in which Turkey won 2-1 on United States soil, snapping a run of United States victories in the head-to-head. Prior to that, the United States had won both the 2014 and 2010 friendlies by a 2-1 scoreline each time. Turkey’s only other win came in the 2003 FIFA Confederations Cup, a 2-1 result. The series has been consistently tight, with the same 2-1 scoreline appearing in four of the five meetings.

This is the first competitive World Cup meeting between the sides, adding genuine novelty to a fixture that has otherwise only appeared in friendlies and a single Confederations Cup group game. Turkey’s 2025 friendly result gives Montella’s side at least one recent data point to argue the gap is smaller than the tournament standings suggest.

Injuries, Suspensions & Roster News

Turkey carries a squad with genuine depth on paper. Captain Hakan Calhanoglu, who has 105 caps and 22 international goals, is the creative fulcrum, and the presence of Arda Guler (Real Madrid) and Kenan Yildiz (Juventus) in the attacking third means the talent is undeniable. The issue is not personnel but performance, as none of the forwards have found the net in two games. Kerem Akturkoglu, Turkey’s most prolific recent scorer, will be expected to lead the line.

For the United States, the selection question is how much Pochettino rotates with the Round of 16 already secured. Key players such as Christian Pulisic, Tyler Adams, and Weston McKennie are fit and available, but squad management may see changes across the starting XI. Folarin Balogun has been the standout attacker with two goals in the group stage and will be expected to continue in or near the starting lineup regardless of rotation elsewhere.

No significant injury concerns have been flagged for either side ahead of this fixture. Turkey has no suspensions after accumulating no yellow cards in the first two group games that would trigger bans at this stage.

Expected Lineups

Turkey (4-2-3-1): Ugurcan Cakir; Zeki Celik, Merih Demiral, Caglar Soyuncu, Ferdi Kadioglu; Hakan Calhanoglu (c), Salih Ozcan; Arda Guler, Kenan Yildiz, Kerem Akturkoglu; Barish Alper Yilmaz

United States (4-3-3): Matt Turner; Joe Scally, Chris Richards, Miles Robinson, Antonee Robinson; Tyler Adams (c), Weston McKennie, Giovanni Reyna; Timothy Weah, Folarin Balogun, Christian Pulisic

Predicted lineups – squads to be confirmed.

Key Matchup to Watch

Hakan Calhanoglu against the United States midfield block is the duel that shapes this game. The Inter Milan midfielder carries Turkey’s creative load, pulling the strings from deep with 105 caps and 22 international goals behind him. In the first two group games, Turkey was unable to create meaningful chances, and the United States midfield trio of Tyler Adams, Weston McKennie, and Giovanni Reyna has shown the ability to press high and win the ball in central areas. If Adams and McKennie successfully limit Calhanoglu’s time and space, Turkey’s supply to Arda Guler and Kenan Yildiz dries up entirely, and the hosts’ counter-attacking quality becomes decisive.

Best Bets & Expert Picks

Turkey vs United States betting tips point firmly toward the hosts, with the market pricing the United States as slight favorites and the underlying data supporting that assessment strongly.

• Main Pick: United States to win – Best price: -105 (BetOnline) – The United States has won both group games convincingly, scoring six goals and conceding one. Turkey has yet to score in the tournament and needs a win, which invites pressure and open play that suits the United States in transition. At near-even money, the value is clear.
• Goals Market: Over 2.5 goals – Best price: -135 (BetOnline/Lucky Rebel) – The United States has scored six goals in two games and Turkey, facing elimination, must attack. Turkey’s qualifying campaign produced 19 goals in 8 games, showing the attacking potential is there when urgency demands it. A high-tempo game with the tie effectively a must-win for one side points toward goals.
• Scorer Pick: Folarin Balogun anytime scorer – Balogun has scored twice in two World Cup games and is the United States’ most consistent attacking threat at this tournament, with four goals in his most recent five-game run for the side. Turkey’s defense has kept two clean sheets but against opponents who also needed a result. An open Turkey side suits a mobile striker.
• Value Angle: Turkey to score (anytime) – Best price: available at leading operators – The chance that Turkey, with Guler, Yildiz, and Calhanoglu available, registers zero goals in three group games is not negligible, but with their tournament life on the line, a side that scored 19 qualifying goals should find at least one. Worth taking at available prices as a hedge on the main bet.

Betting Odds & Lines

Here are the current Turkey vs United States betting odds across the three leading operators for this World Cup 2026 Group D fixture.

Outcome	BetOnline	Lucky Rebel	BetNow
Turkey	+260	+255	+250
Draw	+300	+290	+328
United States	-105	-110	-106

The best available price on the United States is -105 at BetOnline, while Turkey’s best price sits at +260, also at BetOnline. The draw is best priced at +328 with BetNow.

How to Watch & Where to Bet

How to Watch

Turkey vs United States kicks off at 7:00 PM PT on June 25, 2026, at SoFi Stadium in Los Angeles (Inglewood). The match is broadcast on Fox and Telemundo in the United States. International viewers can access the game via their local World Cup broadcast partners, including ITV and BBC in the UK, Globo and SporTV in Brazil, and CTV and TSN in Canada.

How to Bet

To place bets on Turkey vs United States through one of the approved sportsbooks, follow these steps:

1. Choose from BetOnline, Lucky Rebel, or BetNow based on your preference for payment method and available promotions.
2. Navigate to the sportsbook’s official website and create an account if you do not already have one.
3. Complete identity verification as required by the operator.
4. Deposit funds using your preferred payment method (BetNow supports cryptocurrency deposits).
5. Navigate to the Soccer or World Cup 2026 section of the sportsbook.
6. Locate the Turkey vs United States Group D fixture on June 25.
7. Select your market, confirm your stake, and review the odds before submitting the bet slip.
8. Keep a record of your bets and set a deposit limit to stay within your pre-set budget.

Responsible Gambling

Gambling should be approached as entertainment, not as a source of income. If betting is causing financial or personal difficulties, contact the National Council on Problem Gambling helpline at 1-800-GAMBLER (1-800-426-2537), available 24/7, or visit ncpgambling.org. Gamblers Anonymous offers peer support at gamblersanonymous.org. Only bet what you can afford to lose.