This season hasn’t unfolded as Chase Elliott might have anticipated. Having suffered an injury that sidelined him for several races, the Hendrick Motorsports driver now finds himself embroiled in the race to make playoffs, with only 10 regular-season races remaining. Adding to the difficulty, Elliott had an uncharacteristic episode during the race at Charlotte, where his right rear-hooking Denny Hamlin led to a one-race suspension.
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This implies a challenging push for postseason qualification, a hurdle that the 2020 Cup Series champion won’t find easy to overcome if his luck and performances stay the same.
How far off is Chase Elliott in his quest to get into the playoffs?
Despite his current position, Chase Elliott’s chances to qualify for the playoffs are not entirely hopeless. He must secure a win, and with the Nashville race looming this weekend, this becomes even more crucial. Elliott currently finds himself in the 27th spot in the standings.
He trails Alex Bowman, who holds a place within the top 16 playoff contenders, by a substantial 84 points. Slightly ahead of Bowman is 23XI Racing’s Bubba Wallace. Notably, neither Bowman nor Wallace have clinched any wins this season. Prior to his 34th-place finish at Charlotte and the subsequent suspension, Elliott was just 63 points away from the cutoff, with 13 races remaining.
Elliott is now in a crucial position where winning is almost mandatory. The task of surpassing Bowman appears daunting. Despite missing three races due to injury, Bowman has consistently outperformed Elliott, scoring an average of 6.4 more points per race this year. For Elliott to overtake Bubba Wallace, the driver just ahead of Bowman, he would need to average 32.8 points per race, assuming Wallace maintains his current performance level.
There is still hope for Elliott to get into the playoffs
Elliott’s career trajectory so far indicates a positive trend during this phase of the year. A striking seven of his 18 career victories have occurred between the 16th and 26th races of the Cup Series schedule. Moreover, his performance during this stretch last season was particularly remarkable, including a sequence of five races where he consistently finished in the top 2.
This impressive run featured wins at Nashville, Atlanta, and Pocono, along with second-place finishes at Road America and New Hampshire, catapulted him to the regular-season title in 2022. Looking at the upcoming schedule this season, all but one of these tracks, Road America, is featured in the next five weeks, giving Elliott a chance to capitalize on familiar grounds.
This year’s schedule also introduces the Chicago Street Course. Interestingly, this could potentially work in Elliott’s favor considering his skills on road course tracks, as evidenced by his seven victories. Looking at this opportunity, the 27-year-old certainly has the capacity to utilize these courses to his advantage. If and when he does score himself a win in the upcoming races, he will secure himself a spot in the playoffs without much of a fuss.
