While Kyle Petty recently voiced doubts about all three Joe Gibbs Racing drivers reaching the Championship 4 despite their clean sweep of the opening playoff round, Dale Earnhardt Jr. weighed in with his own concerns for the Round of 12, naming several heavyweights, including Chase Elliott.
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The current bottom four entering the round are Austin Cindric, Joey Logano, Ross Chastain, and Tyler Reddick. Junior, however, tipped Logano to claw his way forward at Kansas and New Hampshire, while suggesting Elliott, despite his consistency throughout the regular season and time spent atop the standings, could be in for a rough ride.
He admitted his forecast was instinct more than science. “No scientific data here. No, no evidence or real hard study to back up this prediction. But my four that are going to struggle to make it into the next round are Chase Elliot, Cindric, Chastain, Reddick. I think that Logano, who tested at Loudon… I feel like Loudon and Kansas are two good tracks for Joey. And so I think he’ll do just enough to advance…”
Dale Jr. further pointed out how Logano has made a habit of flipping the switch in the postseason, so he has better chances of making it to the Round of 8 more than others. “Two years in a row, he’s had a very subpar regular season, but then when we get into the playoffs and you look at the tracks and you go, yeah, could see him doing pretty good there…”
On Elliott, Junior’s tone was more cautious. “They were the most consistent team in the garage and led points, right? So, I mean, he’s points leading worthy. Led the points for most of the season. But where is my confidence? You know, I guess it’s been just so quietly doing this that.”
As the standings sit, Denny Hamlin leads by 26 points, William Byron holds second despite going winless in the playoffs, and Kyle Larson sits third with a 24-point cushion above the cutline. Elliott, meanwhile, finds himself seventh with only a five-point buffer, a position that surprised Dale Jr., given his grip on the regular-season points lead.
Still, Elliott carries favorable numbers into the Round of 12. At New Hampshire, he averages 14.7 across 11 starts with two top-fives. Kansas has been kinder, where he owns a 10.4 average finish and one win in 19 starts. At the Charlotte Roval, his seven starts have yielded an average of 7.7 and two wins.
By the stats, the Hendrick Motorsports driver should be on steady ground. Yet his playoff form tells Junior‘s predictions might be based on the current storyline: a lone top-five at Gateway, a P17 at Darlington, and a P38 at Bristol.
