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Denny Hamlin Insists Alex Bowman Won’t Make the Playoffs on His Return if He Races at His Level

Neha Dwivedi
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Feb 15, 2026; Daytona Beach, Florida, USA; NASCAR Cup Series driver Alex Bowman (48) during the 68th running of the Daytona 500 at Daytona International Speedway

Alex Bowman has not had a good start to the year, finishing 40th, 23rd, and 36th in the three races he has taken part in so far. He also had to deal with health issues that forced him to retire from one race.

After leaving the race at the Circuit of the Americas midway due to the heat inside his car, Bowman missed the race in Phoenix. He will also miss the race at Las Vegas Motor Speedway next weekend. Hendrick Motorsports has said there is no clear timeline for his return following the vertigo diagnosis.

The NASCAR community as a whole has shown support for Bowman. However, Denny Hamlin shared a blunt view while commenting on the No. 48 driver’s road back to being a contender this season.

“I think if you took his median performance over the regular season, you would say that it’s over. If he comes back and runs better than his averages, I think he could make it, which means you’ve got to get a lot of stage points,” said Hamlin.

“He’s going to need to probably win a race. Then I think he has a shot. A lot of points can be made up. You can’t just finish good. He’s going to have to run good and finish good, and there is a difference,” the Joe Gibbs Racing driver added.

Hamlin explained that the change in playoff structure as a reason the situation will play out tougher for Bowman to get back into playoff contention. Things may have panned out differently in past seasons. The end of the “win and you’re in” path means a single victory after a long absence will not serve as a shortcut into the postseason.

In the old setup, if a driver missed several weeks and then returned to win the summer race at Daytona International Speedway, that result alone could have punched a ticket to the playoffs. In Hamlin’s view, that path never sat right with many, including himself.

Now the focus is on the standings table. And points will primarily decide the whole narrative. And the driver in the 16th place at the end of the regular season will claim the final playoff spot, period. Regardless of whether he has won or not won any races.

Post Edited By:Somin Bhattacharjee

About the author

Neha Dwivedi

Neha Dwivedi

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Neha Dwivedi is an experienced NASCAR Journalist at The SportsRush, having penned over 5500 articles on the sport to date. She was a seasoned writer long before she got into the world of NASCAR. Although she loves to see Martin Truex Jr. and Kyle Busch win the races, she equally supports the emerging talents in the CARS Late Model and ARCA Menards Series.. For her work in NASCAR she has earned accolades from journalists like Susan Wade of The Athletic, as well as NASCAR drivers including Thad Moffit and Corey Lajoie. Her favorite moment from NASCAR was witnessing Kyle Busch and Martin Truex Jr. win the championship trophies. Outside the racetrack world, Neha immerses herself in the literary world, exploring both fiction and non-fiction.

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