Shane van Gisbergen’s four road course victories have already sparked talk about whether anyone can truly knock him off on left-and-right-turn layouts. And one can only imagine what his Cup career might look like once he finds his rhythm on ovals, something his recent results suggest is already in motion.
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Just weeks ago, SVG claimed his first oval triumph, winning the Pro Legends A-Feature at Charlotte Motor Speedway on the closing night of the 2025 Cook Out Summer Shootout. Beyond that, he has shown flashes of pace in the Cup Series, grabbing pole at North Wilkesboro and then qualifying P6 at Dover and P11 at Indianapolis. Out of 20 oval events in the regular season, the Kiwi has logged six top-20 finishes, most recently charging from P27 to P14 at Richmond, a clear progress.
That steady climb is why insiders now expect him to be more of a factor in the final 10 races, even with just one road course (the Roval in the Round of 12) on the playoff slate. To get there, though, he must first navigate the Round of 16’s three ovals at Darlington, Gateway, and Bristol.
On NASCAR Inside the Race, Steve Letarte laid it out plainly: “It takes about a 17th-place average in points to advance out of the first round of the playoffs. He then has the Roval in the second round of the playoffs. I didn’t give the #88 a big chance of advancing. I still think it’s an uphill battle because Bristol is a challenge for him.”
However, Letarte also added that Richmond offered the first real glimpse of SVG belonging in the mix: “This is the first glimpse, Todd, that I can make an argument. If this is the SVG on the ovals we see.
“Is he going to win an oval? No, he’s still a long ways off. Like these guys in front of him are really, really, really good. But he was in the mix. He was a whole tier higher than I have seen the #88 run.”
Todd Gordon echoed the sentiment, pointing out how SVG wasn’t afraid to test different lines. “He wasn’t afraid to do something different. He went up and kind of ran that top lane… I think he’s putting this together. He’s continuing to get better.”
And in Gordon’s view, if SVG strings together more runs like Richmond and avoids a first-round exit, the team has a legitimate shot at advancing.
SVG’s thoughts on his playoff chances
SVG has two prior Cup starts at Darlington, finishing 26th and 20th. He has never raced at Gateway, the second stop of the opening round, and has just one Cup start at Bristol, where suspension issues left him 38th.
Speaking during media availability Saturday at Watkins Glen International, SVG and Trackhouse Racing team owner Justin Marks weighed in on the playoffs and their outlook for his performance.
SVG did not exactly brim with confidence, saying “I really have no idea. I try not to race with expectations and just take it as it comes.” Still, he recognizes the strides he has made, especially as he returns to tracks for a second time, recalling similar growth last year in Xfinity.
He hopes to carry that same trajectory forward, though he conceded that the first round will be no walk in the park. Darlington, his favorite oval to date, gives him some comfort. Earlier this season, he finished 20th there in Cup and scored a top-10 in Xfinity, but Bristol and Gateway will be tougher puzzles to solve.
With no prior experience at Gateway, he knows the challenge will be steep. Yet he believes if he can clear the Round of 16, the second round should play more to his strengths, particularly with the road course race at Charlotte Roval.
“So I don’t really know how we’re going to end up, but I do feel like we’re improving every week and our average running position or pace is definitely trending in the right direction, so if we execute, who knows what can happen,” he said.
For now, his immediate focus is on turning in a strong run at Daytona next weekend to build momentum and confidence before the playoff ovals come calling.
