Shane van Gisbergen and Justin Marks Paint Realistic Picture About Playoff Expectations

Shane van Gisbergen knows what’s ahead of him in the upcoming NASCAR Cup playoffs. To put it in the simplest terms, he’s going to have to drive like he’s never driven before if he hopes to advance past the first round.

That first round, consisting of Darlington, Gateway, and Bristol, will hold the key to the New Zealand native advancing to the Round of 12 (aka the second round of the playoffs). If he’s able to do that, van Gisbergen has an ace up his sleeve, as the second round ends with a race at the Charlotte Roval road course, which is van Gisbergen’s strong suit, having won three road course races already this season.

But, and there’s a big but for SVG, how does he improve on his career scorecard in those first three playoff races?

Here’s how things break down for him: He has two prior Cup starts at Darlington and finished 26^th and 20^th. He’s never raced at Gateway, the second race of the first round. And he has only one start at Bristol and finished 38^th after suspension issues.

During media availability Saturday at Watkins Glen International, SVG and Trackhouse Racing team owner Justin Marks discussed the upcoming playoffs and what they hope for his performance in the No. 88 Chevrolet Camaro.

How SVG does in the playoffs is anyone’s guess

When asked what are his expectations for the playoffs, van Gisbergen didn’t exactly exude a great deal of confidence in his hopes and expectations. Remember, if he hopes to advance to the second round, he must finish no lower than 12^th in the playoff standings after Bristol.

“I really have no idea,” van Gisbergen said. “I try not to race with expectations and just take it as it comes. But I feel like we’re ramping up a lot and we’re starting to go to tracks that will be the second time for me, and I felt like I got a lot better at that last year at Xfinity.

“Hopefully (it will be) the same trend this year, but the first round is very difficult. We go to Darlington, which is my favorite oval. But the other two, Bristol and Gateway. I haven’t really been to Gateway before, so it’s going to be very difficult. But if we get to the second round, it’s probably going to be easier than the first one, you know?

“So I don’t really know how we’re going to end up, but I do feel like we’re improving every week and our average running position or pace is definitely trending in the right direction, so if we execute, who knows what can happen.”

SVG needs to finish strong in the last three regular season races

Three races remain in the regular season: Sunday at Watkins Glen, next Saturday night at Richmond and the regular season finale in two weeks at Daytona.

Heading into Sunday’s race, where van Gisbergen is considered the favorite, he is the lowest-ranked playoff qualifier, sitting in 25^th position. He finished second in last year’s race at The Glen in a close battle with Chris Buescher. Van Gisbergen likely would have won but he made an uncharacteristic mistake behind the wheel, Buescher took advantage of it and sailed on to victory, a couple of car lengths ahead of SVG.

As for the boss man, Justin Marks, his verbiage during Saturday’s media availability hints at he’s hoping for the best, essentially hoping for a miracle.

“I don’t know if I think about what’s realistic or what the goals are from like a finishing standings position or anything like that,” Marks said. “What we have an opportunity to do with the 88 team is to go into the playoffs, have a lot of playoff points and be able to have somewhat of a cushion.

“I think as the momentum continues to grow and his experience continues to grow and we get through that first round and he has a good second round, I think the Round of 8 is something that’s very possible for us. And then you’re really among the best guys in this sport, executing at the most important time of the year, and that’s when it just gets really, really hard.”

Van Gisbergen has been a conundrum of sorts over the last eight races: After an impressive win at Mexico City (road course), he struggled with finishes of 31^st (Pocono) and 24^th (Atlanta). He then recorded back-to-back wins at the Chicago Street Race and the road course at Sonoma.

But the last three races have been a major disappointment. Just when it appeared Van Gisbergen was finally getting the hang of Cup racing, particularly on short and mid-size ovals, he wound up finishing 30^th at Dover, 19^th at Indianapolis (which was a high point in his overall performance this year), and 31^st last week at Iowa.

If you read between the lines of what Marks is saying, he’s hoping for the best from SVG but, in a sense, is expecting marginal performances like he’s done for the most part this year on non-road courses.

“The focus is to really just stay with the week in and week out of just improving and grinding,” Marks said of SVG. “I think this is the first of many playoff appearances for him, so I think it would be good for him to just get the experience of how the dynamic of the championship changes once we get to those rounds.”

In other words, what van Gisbergen has done to date in his first full season in the Cup Series is a case of “it is what it is.” Where he goes from here is anyone’s guess.