With the 2025-26 NBA season fast approaching, the LA Lakers fans had every right to be delighted. Their summer, after all, had gone according to plan. The Lakers signed Deandre Ayton. Luka Doncic dropped about 30 lbs and followed it up with impressive EuroBasket performances for Slovenia. But just as they thought their team was primed to challenge for the title, disaster struck.
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LeBron James has announced that he has been diagnosed with sciatica and will not be available for the first month of the season. While the four-time NBA champion’s absence isn’t during a particularly critical period in the league, the news has brought with it many doubts on how it would impact the Lakers.
Zach Lowe and Joe House discussed the Lakers’ chances on an episode of Bill Simmons’ podcast. “The Lakers dropped from 49 to 47 and a half,” Simmons stated, pointing out a downward trend in the predictions for how many games the Lakers were expected to win this season.
“They added Deandre and Jake LaRavia and whatever version of Marcus Smart this is going to be. They lost [Dorian] Finney-Smith. They lost [Jordan] Goodwin, whom I kind of liked. They are +220 for the division, 16 to 1 for the title, which is ludicrous,” added Simmons, before asking if the Lakers had in them to be contenders even when LeBron came back, if they had to utilize their three best players on defense.
Simmons further pointed out that while LeBron can be really dialed in for a period of time during the season, it is unfair to expect him to be the Miami version of himself right through the campaign.
“He [LeBron] is a year older, and now he has sort of a herniated disc. Whatever makes me nervous,” Simmons said.
Because of all these reasons, Simmons felt that the Lakers would realistically end up with 44 to 46 wins this season. That would make it a really bad year by the franchise’s exalted standards.
Joe House, however, quickly interjected to point out that when one of the game’s top five players is on the team, no one can simply put the Lakers under 46 to 47 wins in a season.
“Luka. Skinny Luka. Luka with an agenda. This team is Luka’s team. This is his season to make his mark … the true welcome to Los Angeles because they went out so feebly in the playoffs that Luka can wipe that dirt off his shoulders,” said House.
But then, House also concurred that he couldn’t find a defensive identity for this team. So, he too was predicting that they would go under the projected number of wins. Also, nobody in particular jumped off the page when House analyzed the Lakers’ roster. But that wasn’t the only worrying point for him.
House explained that LeBron’s sciatica has no real fix. It’s an ailment that can’t completely heal unless LeBron is superhuman.
“No, no, no, no! Not when you are 41 years old. This is going to be a persistent problem all season long. If you want a do-over under for games played for LeBron James, I will set it at 30 and a half,” remarked House.
Ideally, most of those games would come in the playoffs. But given just how competitive the West is, there’s no guarantee that the Lakers will even get there.
Zach Lowe, however, showed some faith in the Lakers and claimed that he saw them going past the predicted number. But Simmons countered by saying that it could become true only if the Lakers’ front office takes this season seriously.
“This feels like such a transition season in so many ways… I don’t think they care if they are a contender this year,” said Simmons. He also added that the Lakers probably would want to play the long game and see if players like Giannis Antetokounmpo will be available in the next couple of years.
Now, that is a loaded prediction indeed. It will be interesting to see just how accurate it turns out to be because, at this point, it seems a guess at best.
