The 76ers find themselves in a rut that even their most pessimistic fan and most ardent detractor couldn’t have envisioned. They were projected to be one of the two teams in the East before the season commenced after signing Paul George. Instead, they are in the bottom two, only a couple of wins better off than the Wizards, the worst team in the league.
Advertisement
Injuries have played a massive role in their awful start to the season. Joel Embiid has played only four games, George has missed half the season, and Tyrese Maxey has been out for six of their 18 games. When healthy, the 76ers can be a force to be reckoned with. However, given Embiid and George’s injury history, they will likely miss several more games.
Taking everything into account, ESPN’s win projection algorithm predicts that Philadelphia will finish the regular season with about 35 victories, a 42.6% win rate. If that number doesn’t seem big enough to earn a playoff berth, that’s because it usually isn’t.
In the NBA’s 78-year history, only 18 teams have made it to the playoffs with a win percentage of 42.6 or lower. Only eight of those played 82 games in the regular season. The last two teams to achieve that feat were the Pelicans in 2022 and the Celtics in 2004.
New Orleans had finished ninth in the standings, but two wins in the play-in tournament helped them earn a playoff berth. Boston squeaked in as the eighth seed in a dismal East, where only four teams finished over .500 in the regular season.
The Eastern Conference isn’t as bad as it was in 2004, meaning the 76ers are unlikely to finish in the top eight with 35 wins. However, the play-in tournament is a safety net that Philadelphia can rely on to earn a playoff berth. However, over the past three years, the team with the fewest wins to make it into the tournament was the 2023-24 Hawks. They finished the regular season with a 36-46 record.
Philadelphia will need to outperform their projected wins total by at least one to stand a chance of playing in the postseason. However, things are looking bleak for the star-studded roster.
It is dire straits for the 76ers but there’s still hope
According to ESPN analytics, Joel Embiid and Co. have a 47.4% chance of making it to the playoffs. While that’s not encouraging in the slightest, some would argue that the number is too high. However, it’s understandable why analytics suggest the 76ers odds of making it to the playoffs are only slightly worse than a coin toss, despite the team being 4-14.
Embiid, George, and Maxey have played only six minutes together so far. In their absence, rookie Jared McCain has gotten the opportunity to showcase his talent and establish himself as a key member of head coach Nick Nurse’s rotation. Once their star trio is healthy, the 76ers will look like a completely different team.
For now, Philadelphia has to weather the storm and stay within striking distance of 10th place in the standings. As long as they remain in the hunt, their star power should be enough to secure two wins if needed in the play-in tournament. The odds aren’t in the 76ers’ favor. But they have faith that they can beat them.
