From Pen and Paper to Next Gen Stats: How the NFL Has Upgraded Its Analytics Over the Last 50 Years

The Immaculate Reception is widely considered to be the greatest play in NFL history. It occurred under immense stakes, as there were less than 30 seconds remaining in a playoff game between the Oakland Raiders and Pittsburgh Steelers when it became NFL lore. It also—for multiple reasons—is incredibly controversial.

Back then, offensive players could not “consecutively touch a forward pass.” Many believe Steelers fullback John Fuqua was the last man to touch the ball before it reached running back Franco Harris. Had that been the case, Pittsburgh would have lost the game via turnover on downs. Other people have claimed the ball touched the ground before Harris caught it. Can you tell for sure?

Back in 1972, there was no way for a referee, fan or viewer to discern what truly transpired on any given snap. That is no longer the case these days.

Do we still sometimes struggle to decide what is and what isn’t a catch? Unfortunately, yes. But by and large, we can see what happened because of major technological advancements. These improvements also enable us to measure things in a way Franco Harris or Terry Bradshaw could never have imagined in the aftermath of their unlikely playoff victory over the Raiders.

Prior to technological evolution, there was really only one way to track stats: good, ol’ fashioned grunt work. That’s not exactly how the people at NFL Media labeled it, but characterizing it this way gets the idea across.

“Stat collection… for a very long time, consisted of folks in [the] press box identifying what is happening on the field and then manually entering data into a computer to create traditional stats… people in binoculars look down and said, ‘No. 24 was the ball-carrier. He ran from the 10-yard line to the 14-yard line’… they would manually add that up.” 

Before computers existed, you had to scribble the details of every snap by hand. Eventually, when technology improved, the “Game Stats & Information System” – known as GSIS, was created. According to Bill Smith – Director, Research & Analytics (NFL) – GSIS automatically logs plays on its own. However, it doesn’t provide greater detail than, say, “[Patrick] Mahomes threw to Travis Kelce for a 13-yard completion.”

What route did Kelce run? Were any of those yards after the catch? Those questions, and more, could not be quantified or answered by GSIS itself. “Next Gen Stats”, the next stage of the statistical recording revolution, now “automates” all those things. Following that process, it allows us to know intricate aspects of a particular down.

“How likely was Travis Kelce to make that catch? How close was the nearest defender to Travis Kelce at the time of the catch? Was Patrick Mahomes under pressure? Did Patrick Mahomes have to scramble on the play? How long did it take Patrick Mahomes to throw? There are so many additional data points that Next Gen Stats can provide.”

What inspired the creation of Next Gen Stats?

If you thought determining if the ‘Immaculate Reception’ was a catch was tough, you’re in for a doozy here. Back in Week 15 of the 2008 campaign, the Steelers were fighting the Baltimore Ravens for AFC North supremacy. Trailing 9-6 late, quarterback Ben Roethlisberger extended the play and connected with wideout Santonio Holmes for the game-winning touchdown. The problem? The ball may have never crossed the goal line.

Referee Walt Coleman rewarded Pittsburgh a touchdown because “the receiver had two feet down in the end zone with possession of the ball.” This explanation conveniently ignores whether the ball crossed the goal line. According to Hans Schroeder – NFL Executive Vice President of Media Distribution – commissioner Roger Goodell was hellbent on ensuring something like that never happened again.

“[Goodell asked], ‘You have a bunch of smart guys… in [Los Angeles]. Can’t they figure out if the ball crossed the goal line, so we know for sure, using technology in some way, shape or form?’ That started the journey of Next Gen Stats.” – Hans Schroeder

From there, Next Gen Stats was born. And it has accomplished Goodell’s mission. When Ravens quarterback Tyler Huntley sparked the “Fumble in the Jungle” by lunging for the end zone against the Cincinnati Bengals in the 2022 Wildcard Round, Next Gen Stats was able to determine – among other things – how close the football came to reaching the goal line.

As the league transitions to determining first downs with its technology, these previous advancements should be encouraging to NFL fans. We’re inching ever closer to having zero errors in our football measurements. And once that happens, we may have true bliss in our fandom.