Arch Manning has yet to start a full season of college football, but that hasn’t stopped fans and analysts from labeling him the crown jewel of the 2026 NFL Draft. The Longhorns quarterback, and nephew of Peyton and Eli Manning, has made just two career starts, but his pedigree, lineage, and flashes of big-play potential have fueled massive expectations across the football world.
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But according to NFL insider Albert Breer, some of those expectations may be a bit premature. In his recent appearance on The Rich Eisen Show, Breer pushed back on the assumption that Manning is a lock for the 2026 NFL Draft. Or even that he’s ready to follow in the footsteps of his famous uncles just yet.
“I think we would be ignoring the family history if we assumed that he was going to be in the 2026 draft,” Breer said. “Peyton Manning could’ve gone No. 1 in 1997 and stayed an extra year. Eli Manning came back for a fifth season at Ole Miss. There’s precedent here.”
Breer argued that it’s not just about readiness; it’s about how the Mannings have always done things deliberately, taking time to develop fully before “making a leap” to the pros. And with Arch, that same blueprint could apply.
“They’ve done it their way. They wanted to preserve his childhood and college experience,” Breer added, referencing Arch Manning’s private upbringing and his lack of social media presence until his college commitment. So Breer believes that football’s royal family isn’t “going to run away from” a tried and tested formula for the Longhorns star.
Statistically, Arch Manning’s numbers don’t scream NFL-ready just yet. In limited action, he’s thrown for 939 yards, nine passing touchdowns, and added four rushing scores. Impressive flashes, yes, but not enough to place him in the same category as previous top picks like Joe Burrow, who had full seasons of elite production.
“There’s a 67-yard touchdown run and people go, ‘Oh, it’s Peyton and Eli with wheels.’ But do we really know that yet?” Breer asked. “It’s really hard to be that good as a passer and thinker of the game. And we just haven’t seen enough.”
The veteran analyst also brought up the critical threshold for NFL readiness: 25 college starts. Historically, quarterbacks with at least that number of starts tend to fare better in the NFL. Right now, Arch is far from that mark, and Breer believes the Mannings are “acutely aware” of how that experience, or lack of it, can shape a pro career.
So while Arch Manning might have the tools and the last name to make scouts drool, the NFL Insider’s message was clear: fans expecting him to be the next NFL superstar overnight are “making a leap in a lot of different ways.”
Moreover, the 2026 QB class already includes names like Drew Allar [Penn State], Nico Iamaleava [UCLA], Carson Beck [Miami], and Garrett Nussmeier [LSU]. So even though the Longhorns star might eventually rise to the top, his journey, like every Manning before him, will be measured, not rushed.
