Just two weeks remain in the 2025 NFL regular season, and the MVP race has narrowed to what feels like a true two-man battle: Matthew Stafford vs. Drake Maye.
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At 12-3, Maye’s Patriots are firmly in the driver’s seat to win the AFC East and remain very much alive for the No. 1 seed. They sit just a tiebreaker behind the Denver Broncos. Maye’s meteoric rise has been reflected in the betting markets.
The sophomore quarterback has surged to +180 to win NFL MVP, up sharply from +425 just one week ago. Only Stafford (-220) remains ahead of him, maintaining favorite status even though the Los Angeles Rams have relinquished the NFC’s top seed. And that subtle yet significant shift in the standings hasn’t gone unnoticed around the league.
Fox Sports analyst Greg Olsen acknowledged how dramatically the MVP conversation has changed over the past few weeks.
“If you asked me two weeks ago, I would’ve said Stafford pretty comfortably,” Olsen said. “I don’t like punishing guys for one loss.”
That said, Olsen still believes Stafford remains the frontrunner, though the gap has clearly closed. What once felt like a runaway race for Stafford has suddenly tightened into a week-to-week debate, fueled by Maye’s ability to win games while carrying increasing responsibility within New England’s offense.
But then, even in a critical Thursday Night Football loss to the Seattle Seahawks, Stafford reminded everyone why he’s been the MVP favorite for most of the season. The Rams quarterback threw for 457 yards and three touchdowns, and the defeat had little to do with his individual performance.
Entering the final stretch, Stafford leads the league with 4,179 passing yards and 40 touchdowns, while also boasting just five interceptions, the fewest among the league’s top quarterbacks. Los Angeles sits at 11-4, currently the No. 5 seed in the NFC playoff picture.
With upcoming games against the Atlanta Falcons and Arizona Cardinals, both already eliminated from postseason contention, Stafford will have enough opportunity to pad his numbers further. While the Rams don’t fully control their destiny in the NFC West, the division’s competitiveness may actually strengthen Stafford’s MVP case rather than hurt it.
Still, Olsen made it clear that Maye’s rise cannot be ignored. “What Drake Maye is doing on a team that had very little preseason expectations — new coach, four wins last year, bottom of the barrel. That matters,” Olsen said on Bussin’ with The Boys.
The Patriots’ 28-24 win over the Baltimore Ravens on Sunday Night Football could prove to be a defining moment. Maye threw for a career-high 380 yards, engineered a fourth-quarter comeback, and clinched a playoff berth for New England. Something few had expected at the start of the season.
The Patriots are not just good at the moment. They’re legitimate contenders for the No. 1 or No. 2 seed in the AFC, with remaining games against the New York Jets and Miami Dolphins, both of whom will miss the playoffs.
As far as the MVP race is concerned, while Olsen can “make an argument for both,” he ultimately leaned toward experience and consistency.
“If I had a vote, I’d vote for Stafford,” he added. “I’m not as strong in that opinion as I was a few weeks ago, but I’d still give it to him.”
