The NFL playoff landscape continued to shift over Christmas Week, with the Detroit Lions officially eliminated from postseason contention following their loss to the Minnesota Vikings. That result also secured a playoff berth for the Green Bay Packers, further tightening the field as the regular season nears its conclusion.
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With two weeks remaining, the NFC playoff picture is nearly complete. The only unresolved question is the NFC South, where the Carolina Panthers and Tampa Bay Buccaneers remain locked in a tense race for the division crown.
Seattle continues to pace the conference at 12–3 and remains the favorite to secure the NFC’s No. 1 seed. The Seahawks still have road games against Carolina and San Francisco remaining and hold roughly a 46 to 47 percent chance of finishing with the conference’s best record, along with better than even odds to claim the NFC West.
Chicago, sitting at 11–4, has firm control of the NFC North after clinching a playoff spot. The Bears hold an 89 percent probability of winning the division and remain in the periphery of the No. 1 seed conversation. Philadelphia has also clinched the NFC East at 10–5, though its chances of rising to the top seed are slim.
The Panthers currently occupy the fourth seed at 8–7 and control their own destiny in the NFC South. A recent win over Tampa Bay pushed Carolina into first place, though the margin is razor-thin. The Panthers still must face Seattle and then travel to Tampa Bay for the regular-season finale, a game that could decide the division. Carolina’s odds of winning the NFC South sit at around 45 percent.
San Francisco and Los Angeles remain entrenched in the playoff picture from the NFC West. The 49ers, at 11–4, have already clinched a postseason berth and can still secure the No. 1 seed if they win out. The Rams are also playoff-bound but require a complicated series of outcomes to claim the division or conference’s top spot, with their chances falling sharply after recent results.
Green Bay’s postseason ticket was punched thanks to Detroit’s elimination, though the Packers remain a long shot to overtake Chicago for the NFC North. Meanwhile, Tampa Bay remains very much alive despite sitting at 7–8. Although the Buccaneers were knocked out of playoff position by their loss to Carolina, they still have a better-than-50 percent chance to win the NFC South. A victory over the Panthers in their final matchup would give Tampa Bay the tiebreaker and potentially flip the standings.
Over in the AFC, the field is largely settled. Denver and New England sit atop the conference at 12–3, with the Broncos narrowly leading the race for the No. 1 seed. Jacksonville controls the AFC South, Pittsburgh is in firm command of the AFC North, and the Chargers, Bills, and Texans round out the current playoff field. Indianapolis and Baltimore remain mathematically alive but face steep odds entering the final stretch.
As the season winds down, the focus now shifts to the NFC South, where Carolina and Tampa Bay are on a collision course. With Detroit eliminated and most playoff slots secured, the final weeks will determine not just seeding, but whether the Panthers can close the door, or if the Buccaneers can force their way back into the postseason picture at the last moment.
