Tommy Paul moved into the Round of 16 at the 2023 Shanghai Masters, where he will face World No.7 Andrey Rublev. Paul exited the China Open in the first round but had a good run in the North American swing, a semi-final finish at the Canada Open being the highlight. This has boosted him to a career-best ranking of World No.12.
With his good performance in Shanghai and a little bit of luck, Paul finds himself with a chance to sneak in through the backdoor for the ATP Finals in Turin. He currently has 2525 points after his most recent win. The benchmark for automatic qualification is 4555 points, a figure that will not be easy to attain. However, Paul can still make it to the year-end championship if a few other results go his way.
Tommy Paul could eclipse the likes of Taylor Fritz and Casper Ruud
With four qualification slots already locked up, there is a handful of players fighting for the next four spots. All of Paul’s rivals for the remaining positions have faltered in the Shanghai Open. The only exception is Rublev, who is the American’s next opponent.
Other names in the fray, like Holger Rune, Alexander Zverev, Alex de Minaur, and Taylor Fritz all exited the ATP 1000 event early. Casper Ruud and Holger Rune, both ahead of Tommy Paul currently, have seen their form take a sharp nosedive. Hence, their consistent early exits have narrowed the gap for Paul, who now has a realistic chance of catching up. If the ones above him do not improve and he keeps up his form, Paul could be in the Final Eight at Turin.
Novak Djokovic, Carlos Alcaraz, Daniil Medvedev, and Jannik Sinner have already qualified. Additionally, Rublev and Stefanos Tsitsipas, ranked fifth and sixth respectively, also look set to qualify, barring any incredibly shocking collapses. The fight heats up for the seventh and eight spots. Currently, Zverev and Rune occupy those ranks with 3415 and 3110 points, respectively. Going deep in Shanghai Masters will help Paul narrow the gap in his push for a qualification position.
With three ATP 500 tournaments and four 250-level events yet to come, the Race to Turin will be nail-bitingly close. Not to forget, the Paris Masters is also on the schedule. Paul made it to the quarter-finals in 2022. An improvement on the result from last year will be a shot in the arm for his quest to make it to the ATP Finals. He may not achieve the cut-off of 4555 points, but if he keeps up his momentum from the Shanghai Masters and his rivals keep stuttering, he could seal the eighth and final spot.
Paul vs Rublev head-to-head and live-streaming details
Fifth seed Andrey Rublev will be the favourite against 12th seed Tommy Paul in their Round of 16 clash. The American is no pushover and will look to make point while his Russian opponent will want to win and get one step closer to securing an ATP Final berth. Rublev leads the head-to-head 4-1, last defeating Paul at the 2022 Gijon Open.
More recently, the duo faced off in a doubles match at the 2023 Laver Cup. However, two of Rublev’s four wins have come on clay. Paul poses a tough challenge on hard courts so it will be an intriguing match-up.
The match is scheduled for Wednesday, October 11, in Qizhong Forest Sports City Arena in Shanghai. The fixture will start not before 8:00 a.m. EST and will be available on Tennis Channel for live streaming in the USA.
