Max-ing it in America: Why Verstappen is Still on Pole for F1 title

With six races left in the season and a possibly slower car, Max Verstappen has quite a few variables stacked against a successful defense of his Formula 1 crown. 

Pressure is at an all-time high from an ever-looming Lando Norris, who has the driver creds to out-race the Red Bull world champion. The Brit, who has a car to match his verve, is also out to prove a few things. What better way than upstaging the Dutchman? A 52-point lead (let’s not call it a cushion) is what Verstappen has to fight with.

Odds are stacked against the Red Bull ace? Well, not quite. 

The formula (pun intended) involved — Norris needs to beat Verstappen by 8.67 points per Grand Prix — is pretty steep. It could only work with freak eventualities that have even freakier odds: say, the three-time world champion loses the plot completely in America, his favorite hunting ground. And the McLaren No. 1 cashes in on the larger pool points available courtesy of the sprint races. Now, what are the odds of that? Possible, yes. Probable, well, the jury is out on that.

Then comes Red Bull’s never-say-never, better-late-than-never attempt to get the car up to pace. Their last big hardware upgrade of the season can also tip things in Verstappen’s favor as he strives to keep McLaren’s Papaya drivers at bay.

Stacked-up equations and ifs and buts notwithstanding, F1 is set to witness its most exciting season finale in years. And, while Norris has genuine reasons to believe in his chances to win his first driver’s title, here is why it could end up being Verstappen’s year once again.

Why a better RB20 would be enough for Verstappen

Reportedly, the RB20’s update will include a new floor which is meant to improve the car’s balance. Moreover, the side edges of the floor will also be updated to counter the turbulence from the rear.

The hope is that the RB20 will now be able to tap into the full potential of the regulations. It is fair to assume that they failed to squeeze the best out of the machinery so far considering how performance never improved with the developments made midway through the season. Yet, Verstappen maximized his performance and limited Norris’ damage on his lead.

Ever since Norris opened his winning tally in Miami, Verstappen managed 221 points, that too while dealing with balance issues. Norris scored the same too.

Evidently, Verstappen has overperformed with the hardware he had at his disposal. If Red Bull manages to solve the balance issues before Austin, he could bag the results and continue his reign.

Jenson Button was in a similar situation when he won the championship in 2009. In a recent interview, he said, “I think he can probably handle the pressure a bit better than I could back then, but still, it’s not an easy position to be in.”

The American circuits might help Verstappen

The American tour consists of four races across two continents — Austin, Mexico City, São Paulo, and Las Vegas. Verstappen has previously won in all the races. 

Mexico, with five victories, is his favorite. The Circuit of Americas (Austin) is not far behind either. The 27-year-old has won three races over there. In 2023, he won the inaugural race in Las Vegas and has taken the checkered flag twice at Interlagos.

Verstappen is a force to reckon with on all tracks across the Atlantic. Norris will have to pull something special to match the Dutchman wheel-to-wheel and then beat him.

Track monopoly is one thing. On track dynamics have also become vibrant this season with rivals Mercedes and Ferrari gaining substantial ground of late. If Verstappen and Norris thought it was a two-person duel, they may be in for a surprise. We are looking at a four- or even five-man rumble out there.

The rivals who want a piece of the F1 cake

F1 has seen several race winners this season. The drivers from Ferrari, Mercedes, and McLaren have all registered one win at least. Ironically, Red Bull’s Sergio Pérez is the only driver from the Big Four yet to register a win. A stark contrast to his teammate who has won the most this year. 

Ferrari and Mercedes are still pretty much in the mix and would be keen to bag more points. Interestingly, Ferrari can finish ahead of Red Bull in the constructors’ championship. A mere 34-point gap separates them.

So, three teams could potentially gatecrash Verstappen’s party on any given day. 

Norris shares the same predicament. He would be keen to win all the races to seal the title emphatically. Even his teammate Oscar Piastri is dedicated to the task of assisting him in the mission, though McLaren is not usually happy giving orders to its drivers.

With Carlos Sainz Jr., Charles Leclerc, George Russell, and Lewis Hamilton to contend with, Norris and Verstappen have a crowded lane and a busy rearview mirror to deal with.

Since all the remaining races are also do-or-die for both Norris and Verstappen, collisions and DNFs can’t be ruled out either. Norris was forced to retire in Austria earlier this year, after a collision with none other than Verstappen. And things have been sour between them since then.

Racing history in the making

Ferrari can still overtake Red Bull in the Constructors’ standings even if Verstappen manages to win the title. It would be a remarkable achievement in modern F1 — a driver lifting the title but his team coming third in the standings.

Ignominy awaits Pérez, who is currently P8 in the championship. If Verstappen wins the title and the Mexican fails to climb up, he would have to accept the unflattering record — the champion’s teammate who failed to finish higher than P8 in the standings.

Such stark disparity in the record of teammates has only been observed twice in the past. Interestingly, one of the instances involved a Verstappen, the current champion’s father. In 1994, when Michael Schumacher won his first F1 crown driving for Benetton, he had three teammates — Jos Verstappen, JJ Lehto, and Johnny Herbert. Only Jos scored points in the races, finishing 10th in the standings with 10 points in his kitty. 

In 1985, when Alain Prost won the title, his teammate Niki Lauda endured 11 DNFs and finished P10 in the standings. 

Regardless of Verstappen ending things on a high, which is highly probable, Red Bull is likely to evaluate the driver lineup ahead of the 2025 season. After all, next year is expected to be more competitive and exciting than ever.