Heading into the 2025 season, Red Bull had two options to replace Sergio Perez: Liam Lawson and Yuki Tsunoda. While most of the paddock expected Tsunoda to get the nod—not only due to his experience but also because he had outperformed Lawson during their time together at RB—Red Bull went the other way.
Lawson became Max Verstappen’s teammate at Red Bull, frustrating Tsunoda and leaving many in the paddock scratching their heads.
After the Australian GP last weekend, this became an even bigger topic of discussion, as Lawson disappointed despite having the second-fastest car on race day. He didn’t even make it out of Q1, lining up in P18, while Tsunoda qualified in P5.
This has prompted rivals to openly question Red Bull’s decision-making, with Zak Brown calling out the Milton Keynes-based team.
“[Yuki] is probably the guy who should be in the Red Bull, looking at how he did. But they seem to be making some weird driving decisions,” Brown said to Sky Germany.
Admittedly, bold driver decisions are something Red Bull never shies away from making. In the past, they have made some rather hasty lineup changes, but at the same time, they aren’t afraid to pull the plug early. Red Bull is notorious for shuffling its driver pairings mid-season, so no one (other than Max Verstappen in all fairness) is safe.
Yuki Tsunoda has a combined 34-12 qualifying H2H against his teammates over the last two seasons.
10-1 vs. Lawson
16-9 vs. Ricciardo
8-2 vs. De VriesUnderstand the dynamics of why Yuki was passed over by Red Bull but he’s done everything asked to earn that drive. pic.twitter.com/sVIQo7ge7E
— Daniel Valente ️ (@F1GuyDan) December 19, 2024
That’s what Christian Horner hinted at when he revealed Tsunoda’s reaction to losing out on the seat.
“I spoke to him a short while ago and he’s more motivated than ever to, you know, he wants to prove us wrong. I said to him, ‘Look, this sport moves so quickly, this industry moves so quickly that he just needs to keep doing a great job in the Racing Bulls team.”
That said, Red Bull most likely felt that Tsunoda wasn’t ready for the Red Bull jump yet. The Japanese driver’s temperament was a big issue in his initial F1 days, and although it has improved by leaps and bounds, Helmut Marko isn’t fully convinced. “His outbursts of anger have improved considerably but remain an issue. He loses control,” the Red Bull chief advisor said.
2025 might be Tsunoda’s last shot at Red Bull
Tsunoda outperformed Lawson on all fronts in Melbourne with a much slower car. And although Marko won’t judge this one result to place Tsunoda ahead of the Kiwi just yet, repeated similar performances could very well change that.
Historically, handling the pressure of being alongside a driver of Verstappen’s caliber has been a tough task, and cracks could develop in Lawson’s confidence if he has a few more tough weekends. If this trend continues, Red Bull’s hierarchy may be forced to sack Lawson.
In that case, Tsunoda would be the obvious candidate to replace him, which could also be crucial for his chances of securing a seat in the sport for 2026 and beyond. Tsunoda is a Honda-backed driver, and with them leaving the Red Bull family after this season, it could be tough for him to hold on to his seat.
Only if Tsunoda exceeds all expectations set by Marko and Co. will he be able to vie for a Red Bull seat without Honda’s support next year.
