For Aaron Judge, One Homer Might Be All It Takes

The post season has not been kind to the American league’s best hitter. To start with, his Yankees have not advanced past the championship series in his first seven seasons. At least they avoided Houston this time.

Three trips to the ALCS, all against the Astros have left the Yanks on the outside looking in. Last year was the most painful on a personal level as Judge managed a measly single and a walk in 17 plate appearances vs Houston.

He entered this year’s playoffs with a .211 career post season batting average, compared to .288 regular season. And an OPS of .772 compared to a dominating 1.101 career season mark.

Despite the low numbers he has at least hit some longballs in the playoffs with 13 in 171 at bats. The post season rate of a homer every 13.2 at bats, higher than his regular season number of 11.3.

The fact is when Home run hitters hit one, there’s usually more on the way. From Babe Ruth to Mickey Mantle, through Barry Bonds, it has always been thus. Especially after a small drought.

Judge failed to homer in his first six games of the season, then hit 2 in three games. He hit one in his next 15 but then came three in five games.

He hit homers in back to back games fourteen times including streaks of three games in a row, four in a row and his longest at the end of the season. After going homerless in four, Judge went deep in five in a row, finishing the streak in the Yankes penultimate game at home against Baltimore.

For Judge the time might be now

So beware when he finds his stroke and he may well have just in time here in the 2024 playoffs. One good sign has been the six walks he’s drawn so far so he’s seeing the ball well. His double to the gap in left center in the clincher vs Kansas City was a decent clue.

However his high arching flyball over the bullpen in game 2 of the ALCS might be the one that scares you if you’re Cleveland and hoping to get back in this series. Judge might just be ready to take this series over.