Has Chase Elliott’s ‘Consistency’ Masked the Overall Deterioration of the HMS Driver’s Struggles on the Track?

Chase Elliott is currently ranked fourth on the points table ahead of the Cup Series race at the Texas Motor Speedway. His consistency throughout the season has been remarkable, and he has proven that he is no slouch on the track. But the expectations that his team, fans, and the industry in general have of him are far from being met. Let’s understand why this is.

From 2018 to 2022, the Hendrick Motorsports driver reached victory lane 18 times in 180 races. His win percentage of 10% was second only to Kevin Harvick’s 12.8%. In this same period, he was consistently better than his teammates, too. He finished ahead of them in 61.7% of the races they contested together. In short, his consistency was accompanied by his ability to reach Victory Lane.

But 2023 was when things began falling apart. He missed out on seven races after suffering injuries from a snowboarding accident. The Next Gen car added to his troubles when he eventually returned. He hasn’t been the same aggressive force since. The longest winless drought of his career (98 races) came when he debuted in the Cup Series. The second and third longest have come now, in the past two seasons.

He reached Victory Lane at Texas around this time last year to break a winless streak of 42 races. His fans sighed a breath of relief, thinking that the worst was behind them. But his form didn’t really pick up from there and he has gone another 37 races without a win. Since the start of 2023, his win percentage is 1.3%. And his dominance against his teammates has been falling year-on-year, reaching 40% in 2024.

Should Chase Elliott’s numbers be cause for concern?

Sure, Chase Elliott isn’t performing on the level that he used to before. But fourth place on the points table isn’t a bad spot to be in after the first 10 races of a season. What is all the fuss about, then? Elliott has led the fewest laps among his teammates this year. He hasn’t won a race or even a stage yet either.

These are concerning disturbances despite the position he is in. The key question that is put in front of him is how much longer it is going to be before he adapts to the Next Gen car and reinvents himself, especially considering his peers have managed to do it to a great level of success already.

As far as being worried about the numbers goes, Elliott himself had an answer to the question. He told Bob Pockrass in a recent interview, “I think I am no different than anyone else on our team. We want more. I think we are capable of more. We just have high expectations of ourselves.”

“We know what we are capable of. We are proud of the good runs we have had but know that there is more in the tank and that we can extract more out of our team.” The joy of watching a fan-favorite driver in Victory Lane is unparalleled. Hopefully, Chase Elliott won’t deprive fans of that happiness for much longer.