Denny Hamlin finds himself teetering on the edge, currently holding the P6 spot with an 18-point shortfall. His precarious position can be attributed to several factors, including the ongoing Charter agreement lawsuit and his overall performance. However, there’s an additional snag that has knocked him from top contender status to just another name in the playoff mix.
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A costly blunder by Toyota has significantly impacted his championship prospects. Were it not for this mistake, Hamlin would be facing a mere 4-point deficit, positioning him much closer to securing a spot in the next round. Specifically, the No. 11 Joe Gibbs Racing team and Hamlin were slapped with an L2-level penalty for breaching NASCAR’s engine inspection standards.
The #11 team landed in hot water under Sections 14.7.1.E&F and 14.7.1.1.B&E of the NASCAR Rule Book, after Hamlin’s victory on March 17 at Bristol brought scrutiny. The Toyota Racing Development team had prematurely dismantled and reconstructed the race-winning engine before its mandatory NASCAR inspection.
The oversight led to severe repercussions: both Hamlin and team owner Joe Gibbs were penalized 75 championship points and 10 playoff points each. Additionally, crew chief Chris Gabehart faced a hefty $100,000 fine. The error, which TRD president David Wilson termed a “grievous mistake,” was self-reported by Toyota Racing Development.
Hamlin delved into the impact of this penalty during an August episode of his Actions Detrimental podcast, articulating the gravity of the situation:
“You can look at it and say, ‘Well it’s just a 10-point penalty,’ but it isn’t. Look where I’m at now: I’m eighth in points. I was battling for the regular-season championship, which would have paid 15 points, and now at most I’m probably going to get three. Just a huge swing for us.”
What would have been Hamlin’s position right now if he was not penalized at that time?
Had Hamlin not been slapped with that penalty, he would have been seated comfortably at P4 in the final regular-season standings, rather than at P7.
That shift would have netted him a bonus of seven points, rather than a mere four. Coupled with the initial deduction of 10 playoff points, this would have boosted Hamlin’s total by an additional 13 points.
Consequently, instead of lagging 18 points behind the cutline, Hamlin would have been a mere 4 points short — a gap he could feasibly close at Martinsville.
With an established track record at Martinsville Speedway, boasting an average finish of 10.2 across 37 starts and clinching five victories, his prospects of bridging this slight deficit in the upcoming race appear promising, especially considering his recent form of finishing three out of the last five races within the top-5.
