Stephen Doran has heard all the chatter about his driver, Shane van Gisbergen. SVG came into the NASCAR Cup playoffs tied with Denny Hamlin for the most wins (four apiece) during the 26-race regular season. All four of those wins were on a road course, SVG’s specialty.
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But now that we’re coming into the second race of the playoffs this Sunday at World Wide Technology Raceway (aka Gateway) near St. Louis, the chatter has increased: Can SVG finally win—or at the very least, earn a top five or top 10—on an oval?
Or at the very least, can the New Zealand native finish high enough and earn enough points at Gateway that coming into Bristol next week, he has a shot at advancing to the Round of 12 (which also includes the only road course track in the playoffs, the Charlotte Roval).
And given the fact that all four of his wins this season have come on a road course, if van Gisbergen were to win at the Roval, which is the final race of the Round of 12, he would advance to the Round of 8, which seems to be the team’s ultimate goal, as Doran explains at the end of this story.
The #88 Chevrolet driver struggled in the opening playoff race at Darlington last Sunday, finishing 32nd. But Doran feels confident that SVG’s breakthrough race could be imminent. However, there’s also the reality that SVG is ranked 12th, just above the cutline for the Round of 12.
“[I] hope to just have a good solid day there,” Doran said of WWTR to interviewer Chris Weaver. “We have a small points buffer now. We’d love to build that a little bit. Go to Gateway, which we haven’t been to yet, but I think it fits his driving style. So I hope we could have a good, solid top 10 to 15 day there as well.
“And then my goal is to go into Bristol and not have to do a lot because that was one of our tougher races in the spring [finished 38th]. I’m sure we’ll be better there, but I’d love to go there with not a ton of pressure to have to do something miraculous there.”
Could SVG Pull Off a Surprise Finish at Gateway?
Gisbergen is a potential dark horse to do well at both Gateway and Bristol, particularly the former. Given that he’s never been at the 1.25-mile oval before, sure, there’s pressure on SVG, but going to a new track could give the Trackhouse Racing driver the kind of incentive and opportunity to break the main knock against him: that he can’t do well on an oval.
Frankly, if there ever was an oval track that was built to give SVG the best shot of earning a top five or top 10—or a miraculous win—it’s Gateway, followed by Bristol. If he can stay out of trouble at both tracks, particularly Bristol, SVG has an opportunity to earn his long-anticipated breakthrough finish on an oval.
But there’s one glaring problem: Gisbergen has five wins, six top-fives, and nine top-10 finishes in his brief NASCAR Cup tenure. And all those finishes have been on a road course.
Shane’s Best Oval Finish to Date Has Been 12th
His best finish on an oval has been 12th, coming during last fall’s playoffs at Martinsville, followed by a surprising 14th-place finish nearly four months ago in the Coca-Cola 600 at Charlotte, as well as a 14th-place showing last month at Richmond.
His next best showing on an oval—which was helped by several multi-car crashes that took out several key players—was 15th at Talladega, also during the 2024 playoffs, as well as 16th two weeks ago in the regular season finale at Daytona.
That’s the good news, kind of. Now the bad news: In 41 career starts in the Cup Series, he has finished between 20th and 29th 12 times, and between 30th and 40th 13 times.
That means the former Supercars champion has a 61 percent chance of finishing 20th or worse in every oval on the remainder of the schedule. Still, Doran is optimistic that van Gisbergen can pull off a miraculous finish at both Gateway and Bristol, which would send him into the Round of 12 in the playoffs.
“There’s for sure a path [to the Championship 4 round],” Doran said with an air of confidence. “If we can get to the Round of 12, we have a race in there that we should be the favorite at [the Roval]. And then you look at the Round of 8. It’s kind of the biggest wild card round with Talladega and Martinsville in there. There’s for sure a path.”
As much as Doran and his driver would like to think ahead to the Round of 12 with the road course race on the Charlotte Roval, or getting past that to the Round of 8, they have to limit their enthusiasm for looking forward and instead focus on one race at a time, starting with Gateway this Sunday.
If SVG Can Reach The Round of 8, It Will Be A Good Season
But Doran is also realistic. This is van Gisbergen’s first full season in the Cup Series, and the biggest goal is getting through the first two rounds. A championship bid will likely have to wait until next season, unless SVG has some miraculous finishes in the two remaining Round of 16 races, as well as getting through the Round of 12.
“The first round, I think, is the toughest,” Doran said. “[If] we get through that, there’s a better path. I think the Round of 8 would be really good for our first year and then build from that for next year,” he concluded.
