Luck used to play a role in NASCAR success, particularly when it comes to Cup championships. But that’s not the case anymore, according to Cup driver Denny Hamlin.
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When interviewed back in 2012, Hamlin said he believed winning a Cup championship was 40 percent due to the driver, another 40 percent was due to the car and the team, and the remaining 20 percent was the biggest intangible: luck.
When asked last week by The Athletic if those percentages have changed 13 years later, Hamlin initially said yes, somewhat. “I still think it’s 40 percent driver (but) now I’d switch car and luck to 30 percent each,” Hamlin said.
A good part of the reason, Hamlin believes, is the Next Generation/Gen 7 car, which was introduced in 2022. Cup cars have never been more similar, not to mention they’ve never been able to be worked upon so minimally at any point in NASCAR history.
“Cars aren’t quite as much of a factor because they’re more similar now, and luck because of the parity and since the cars all run the same speed,” Hamlin said. “Driver still matters. That’s why you see the same guys up front every week.”
Hamlin is lucky at the casino, but not Cup championships
Now, Hamlin may have had luck in gambling. He reportedly won close to $275,000 earlier this year at slots and table games at a Las Vegas casino while NASCAR was in Sin City for that weekend’s race.
But when it comes to luck in winning Cup titles, he’s had none. Since his first full-time season in Cup in 2006, Hamlin has made the Cup playoffs every year except once.
Included in that record is that he’s reached the Championship 4 six times, finishing runner-up once (2010), third three times (2006, 2014 and 2021) and fourth twice (2019 and 2020). But he’s never won the big prize: the Cup Series championship.
As they say in the NFL, it was upon further review for Hamlin
Perhaps that’s why Hamlin called The Athletic back two days after giving his answer last week, and as they say in the NFL when it comes to looking at instant replays, Hamlin changed his answer upon further review.
“After thinking about it more, I believe these are the correct percentages in today’s world: driver 65 percent, team 25 percent, luck 10 percent,” Hamlin said.
“I lowered luck because it’s not a factor in winning as much as being good is. It is still a factor in some wins, but great drivers have more opportunities to win because of their skill level.
“Team does matter, but with the Next Gen (car), you can’t build the difference in cars like you used to. The driver is the one who sends team in a direction to make the cars fast, thus being the most important.”
Hamlin has had a great season thus far this year. In the first 24 races and with two more left before the start of the Cup playoffs, including Saturday night at his home track, Richmond Raceway, he has earned four wins, as well as 11 top-fives and 12 top-10 finishes.
Wouldn’t it be ironic if, given how Hamlin is already locked into the playoffs, that the one year where he discounts luck the most also winds up being the year that he finally earns his first career Cup championship? If that happens, who knows, maybe Hamlin will give more weight to luck once again.
