The 2023 Cup Series champion, Ryan Blaney, is inarguably the most unlucky driver of the ongoing season. Despite having a car that is blistering fast, he has been unable to secure good results and put himself up the points table. His heightened performance levels are reflected strongly by his Green Flag Pass Differential.
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The Green Flag Pass Differential is used to measure how many spots a driver gains or maintains during green flag runs. It’s the difference between passes made and received inside the top 10. A higher number suggests that a driver is making up more spots rather than falling back.
NASCAR data analyst Daniel Céspedes analyzed data from the first eight races of the season and concluded on social media that Blaney has a pass differential of +71 when driving in the top 10. This is more than double that of Chase Elliott (+35). Why this is impressive is because passing in the Next Gen car is a pain point for many drivers.
Blaney has taken this issue and resolved it with too much ease. But what causes concern is, again, that he doesn’t have enough results to match such skill. His average start is 17.1, while Elliott’s is 12.0. So, Blaney has more cars to overtake than Elliott does. This results in a less-than-impressive finishing position.
Over the last 5 races, Ryan Blaney has a Green Flag Pass Differential (excluding pit cycles) of +71 when running in the Top 10, more than DOUBLE that of the next driver (Chase Elliott at +35).
Each driver’s Green Flag Pass Differential in the Top 10 over the last 5 races: pic.twitter.com/o0ged4qprQ
— Daniel Céspedes (@_DanielCespedes) April 8, 2025
His teammate, Joey Logano, who has the third-best differential, has an average starting position of 9.8. Blaney has an average finishing position of 18.13, which is considerably lower than Elliott’s 11.13. This proves how, despite the great speed and better passing ability, he has only three top-10 finishes in the season’s first eight races.
How Blaney was kept out of Victory Lane in Darlington
Blaney had the best long-run car on the field last Sunday. It was poorly timed cautions and an inefficient pit crew that made his efforts go in vain. In his very first trip to the pit road, he lost five spots and finished Stage 1 in seventh place. In Stage 2, he had the chance to take the lead after pitting early. But more cautions followed and disrupted his progress.
The No. 12 Ford Mustang wasn’t great on restarts, and it showed. Through some resilient racing, he finished Stage 2 in fourth place. But the troubles weren’t over.
A very bad pit stop made him drop 12 spots and he started the final stage form 16th place. His biggest competitor of the day, William Byron, was dominating the field at the front at the same time.
Blaney and Denny Hamlin were the last two cars to pit in the final stage. He exited pit road with a 17-second deficit against Tyler Reddick. But he had fresh tires and the ability to make great passes. He used these advantages and in 40 laps, he overcame the deficit. He took the lead with four laps to go and was extremely close to victory.
This was when Kyle Larson spun for the second time on Sunday and brought out another caution. All the work from Blaney was erased and the field reset. He lost three more spots on the pit road and ultimately finished in fifth place. The entire sequence was a reminder of how cruel of a sport racing can be.
