Ever since the departure of Paul George in 2019, the Oklahoma City Thunder have been on an upward trajectory consistently. At first, their rebuild exceeded expectations, resonating as a feel-good story and reviving the fans’ belief in the team.
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Sam Presti has continued his masterclass in roster management and OKC have now gone from underdogs to Championship contenders in a matter of a few seasons.
Until last season, the Thunder were still rebuilding with some allegiance to the players they had drafted. But now that the team has gotten active outside of the NBA Draft, their roster has elevated to new heights.
With this in mind, let’s take a look at 5 possible outcomes from the OKC Thunder’s 2024-25 campaign.
1. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander wins his first NBA scoring title
The 26-year-old was considered one of the favorites to lead the league in scoring last season. But a historic campaign from Luka Doncic and a slight downturn in SGA’s scoring output, kept the title away from the Canadian guard. The Thunder star finished the 2023-24 season with 2,254 points, second on the leaderboard behind Doncic.
The young guard averaged 30.1 points per game last season in the 75 games he played. So he was right there in contention for the scoring title last year as well.
Over the last few seasons, Shai has proven that he has the tools to be an unstoppable scorer. His prowess is even more remarkable considering that he attempted just 3.6 three-pointers per game as a guard last season in a league heavily reliant on three-point scoring.
SGA has one of the most dominant mid-range games in the league and is uniquely skilled at attacking the basket.
His ability to leverage his shot allowed him to make 1,748 drives to the basket last season, 248 more than any other player in the league. He was top six in both field goals in the paint and field goals in the mid-range while boasting a free-throw rate in the 93rd percentile of all NBA players.
Furthermore, with Alex Caruso taking over Josh Giddey’s position, Shai’s effectiveness as an offensive creator could see a spike. Caruso knocked down 40.8% of his threes while playing on a poorly spaced Chicago Bulls roster.
He will benefit greatly from OKC’s spacing and force defenses to respect his shot, making them reconsider sending a double team to Gilgeous-Alexander. As a result, SGA can exploit his matchups with more space to operate. It could be the difference maker for Shai to snag his first scoring title.
2. Alex Caruso becomes the 8th guard to win Defensive Player of the Year
For several seasons already, Caruso has been one of the premier stoppers in the league. Unfortunately, his impact has gone under the radar on the underperforming Bulls. This season, his versatility and IQ on defense are going to be hard to miss on a contending team.
Caruso’s ability to read the game is only matched by his incredible hands. He was in the 99th percentile in deflections last season, but what makes him truly exceptional is how effectively he can turn defense into offense. Caruso’s style of play will fit right in with the high energy roster of the Thunder.
Caruso was one of two players last season to tally at least 90 steals and 60 blocks. The other? His new teammate, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. Their defensive intensity can strangle offenses, with the two players averaging a combined 3.7 steals and 1.9 blocks. Having SGA hold down his end of the court, Caruso will be able to thrive as a disruptor and make a solid case for the Defensive Player of the Year award.
His ability to moonlight as a rim protector is also going to be highly valuable in OKC, where paint defense fell mostly on the shoulders of Chet Holmgren. Thankfully, AC isn’t the only addition the Thunder have made to address that issue.
3. Isaiah Hartenstein averages a double-double for OKC
During Mitchell Robinson’s injury, I-Hart scaled up from his backup role and served as a reliable paint stopper for the New York Knicks. His services are exactly what the Thunder required, as they played most of last season without a serviceable backup to Holmgren.
Hartenstein brings the size that OKC need to compete against centers like Nikola Jokic and Joel Embiid. He can hold his own against the burlier bigs and unlock Chet’s help defense.
The 26-year-old’s rebounding will also help the Thunder, who were in the bottom 4 of all teams in rebounding last season. With at least 30 minutes of gameplay a night, Hartenstein could comfortably average 10 rebounds for OKC.
The only concerns fans have about Isaiah Hartenstein’s fit relates to his three-point shooting. The Thunder have played 5-out basketball for most of last season, with Holmgren, their sole big, shooting over 37% of the threes. However, with a traditional center now in the lineup, some are wary of how Hartenstein will affect the team’s spacing.
The big man did attempt just 3 three-pointers last season, but he has shown a willingness to grow his game. Even with the Knicks, I-Hart’s playmaking and creation became more and more prominent as he took on a bigger role. His dribble hand-offs with Jalen Williams and SGA are going to create many advantages for the big man to exploit, either as a kick-out passer or as the roll-man.
4. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander becomes the first North American MVP of the 2020s
Since 2019, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Nikola Jokic and Joel Embiid have had a stranglehold on the MVP award. Even last season, SGA’s incredible two-way campaign came second only to the Joker, who took home his third MVP honor.
However, with six consecutive European bigs snagging the award, voter fatigue is likely to kick in and fans will look for a new name to place atop the league. Apart from Luka Doncic, nobody comes as close to winning the award as SGA.
Last season, he became only the second player after Michael Jordan to average at least 31 points, six assists and two steals while shooting over 50% from the field. Even more impressively, Gilgeous-Alexander did this while leading the league in steals.
Now, with Alex Caruso’s deadly three-point shooting and Isaiah Hartenstein’s rugged screens, Shai finds himself entering his prime with the best supporting cast of his career. More importantly, he isn’t a star on a rebuilding team either.
SGA’s success will directly translate to the success of the OKC Thunder, making his MVP case even more robust. We must note that the Thunder are likely to top the West this season as well.
5. OKC returns to the Western Conference Finals
The last time the Thunder made it that close to the NBA Finals was during the Russell Westbrook and Kevin Durant era. After a near-perfect decade of rebuilding, Oklahoma seems more than prepared to go all the way next season. Positioning SGA as the offensive heart of the team, Sam Presti has done a remarkable job building around him.
Lu Dort and Alex Caruso are both top 5 perimeter defenders in today’s NBA. They are the perfect matchups should the Thunder take on Minnesota or Dallas, who score primarily from the guard position.
Then, if you look at teams like the Nuggets, Bucks or 76ers, whose stars are big men, Presti has also reinforced the roster to take on matchups like Joel Embiid and Nikola Jokic. With versatile, high-activity wings like Jalen Williams and Aaron Wiggins on the flanks, there are hardly any vulnerabilities to exploit in OKC’s defense.
Regardless of their seeding or potential matchup, the Thunder have built a roster that can hold its own against every team in the NBA. Their campaign to lift the franchise’s first championship begins this month, with a long schedule between them and their final goal.
We’ll continue reporting on their new-look roster as they prepare to take on Victor Wembanyama and the Spurs in their first pre-season matchup next week.
