The NBA MVP is looking like a two-man race between Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Nikola Jokic. Each has been playing at an incredible level all year, but factors other than court performance are threatening to reshape the conversation. Voter fatigue is real. The fact that Jokic has won the league’s top individual award in three of the past four years makes it tough for him to win it again.
Advertisement
A win this year would be Jokic’s fourth in five years, a feat only accomplished by Bill Russell and LeBron James. That’s ridiculously elite company. Some even argue that the big Serbian should have won it over Joel Embiid in 2023 as well.
Jokic’s teammate Aaron Gordon has an entire list of reasons Jokic deserves to be the MVP, from his ridiculous plus-minus numbers compared to how the Nuggets fare when he sits, to the fact that he’s averaging a triple double while scoring just under 30 points a game and shooting nearly 50 percent from the three-point line, saying,
“His numbers are better than Shai’s … I don’t think it’s as close as people are making it.”
Voters will have to decide if they side with Gordon, or if they’re ready for someone new to be named the league’s most valuable player.
Is the race for NBA MVP between Nikola Jokic and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander close?
Shai does have some things working in his favor beyond potential voter fatigue. He’s the best player on the best team, a status that traditionally is the top indicator of who is going to win the MVP award in any sport. He also leads the league in scoring with 32.5 points per game. He’s also extremely likable, and that can’t be ignored when Jokic can come across as aloof.
Based strictly on numbers, Jokic should be the winner if the season ended today. Voters reward players on winning teams, and when the Nuggets were hanging around the play-in spots earlier in the season, that would have given them enough cover to go for Shai instead. Now that Denver is one of the hottest teams in the league and just a half-game out of the 2-seed, though, that logic no longer applies.
Jokic is top-four in the league in points, rebounds, and assists. The sheer force of his numbers and the effect he has on the game can’t be ignored. It’s not a knock on Shai to say that he’s number two. If anything, it’s an honor to be above so many other incredible players in the league. Jokic is just on another level.
That doesn’t mean he’s going to actually win, for all of the off-the-court reasons listed above. Shai is actually a hefty favorite in the betting markets right now, with FanDuel listing him at -440 compared to Jokic’s +300. Nobody else is remotely close, but it’s telling that Shai is so far ahead despite Jokic putting up such a superlative season.
Aaron Gordon appeared on Run It Back today and let host Michelle Beadle know why Joker deserves this historic honor. Obviously, Gordon is biased as Jokic’s teammate, but he didn’t say anything that wasn’t true, and he did point out that Shai is also an incredible player.
Aaron Gordon says Nikola Jokić deserves to win NBA MVP more than SGA:
“His numbers are better than Shai’s.”@Double0AG | @MichelleDBeadle pic.twitter.com/qKLkAvhWAO
— Run It Back (@RunItBackFDTV) February 19, 2025
The narrative matters in the NBA, and it always has. Karl Malone once won MVP over Michael Jordan. David Robinson won over Hakeem Olajuwon. Each of those all-time greats got a chance to exact revenge in the playoffs, and they did. If the Nuggets and Thunder do match up in the Western Conference Finals, it would be a fitting conclusion to a spectacular race. Thankfully for NBA fans, there’s still a lot of basketball left.
