Luka Doncic has been among the top eight league MVP candidates every year since his sophomore year in the NBA in 2019. Last season, he came closest to the MVP award after finishing 3rd in the voting. He had a stellar season with 33.9 points, 9.8 assists, and 9.2 rebounds per game, numbers that scream MVP.
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As he continues his ascent in the league, here is a look at his performance from last season, which can help project his MVP prospects for the 2024-25 season.
Offensively, Doncic may be a lock for MVP
Since the 2019-2020 season, Doncic has accumulated the highest points in the league with 9944(30.3 Points per game). Last season, he also led the league in total points with 2370 points (while shooting 48.7%), securing his first scoring title.
Doncic could’ve been the MVP instead of Nikola Jokic last year if the Mavs finished higher in the West than their 5th spot.
It was also the first time that Luka made over 4 triples a game(4.1) on a decent 38.2% clip. Apart from being a knockdown shooter, the Slovenian superstar was a menace in the paint as well.
He attempted 17.8 drives per game, nailing 4.9 out of 7.9 field goal attempts on a highly impressive 61.6% shooting (first among players with 4+ field goals per game). Meanwhile, he had the second-best assists percentage(42.8%) behind Tyrese Haliburton in the league.
Overall, he was second-best in Offensive Box Plus/Minus(9.0) after Nikola Jokic. Offensively, Doncic had a solid case for MVP and he would be expected to chart a similar trajectory during the upcoming season.
Is Luka an underrated defender?
Doncic is not known for his defensive prowess, which has somewhat held his MVP case back. However, he is not a below-average defender when we examine some advanced stats. In fact, he holds his own in many regards.
Last season, he had a defensive rating of 112.6, placing him second among all point guards. While he can be a liability inside the paint on switches, the Mavs PG did a terrific job of contesting three-pointers last season.
He was 20th in the league with 2.8 three-point contests per game. Apart from that, he did a terrific job at hustling for the ball, recovering 77 total loose balls, which was the fifth best effort. Therefore, Doncic’s defense may not be as terrible as it is made out to be.
Moreover, defense is not that high on the totem pole when it comes to factors influencing the MVP nominations.
The overall case
Doncic is the best all-around guard in the league since Russell Westbrook’s decline. He was #1 among guards with 21 triple-doubles last season and has notched 61 triple-doubles since 2020, only behind Nikola Jokic.
During the 2023-24 season, his MVP case weakened because the Dallas Mavericks finished with 50 wins and 32 losses. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander finished ahead of him in the MVP voting because his Thunder had secured the #1 spot in the West.
However, Doncic’s Mavs are expected to get better during the upcoming season after a Finals run and the inclusion of Klay Thompson on the roster. After Thompson’s addition, Doncic may hit the 10 assists per game mark for the first time in his career and may become the third player to have a triple-double season.
Jokic stands in his path again. However, the league might want to see a different MVP after awarding Jokic with three such awards already. Considering all the permutations and combinations, Doncic is the favorite for the Regular Season MVP Award next season.
