Like most sports, the NBA has undergone a statistical revolution in recent years. It’s been evident how that’s manifested itself, from the increase in 3-point volume to the near-eradication of the midrange jumper. There are exceptions, but this focus on analytics has created a kind of homogeneity in the way many teams play.
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One thing analytics, at least in the way most people throw the term around, doesn’t account for is the human element. In the NBA in particular, there are just five guys on the court at any given time for each team.
Each one of those has their own feelings and motivations, so while it may be tempting to just see someone who averages 20 and 10, there are a whole host of factors that go into why that player might explode for 30 on a given night, or have an off game and only put up 12 and 7.
Lakers head coach JJ Redick made a point recently about how his team, and his star Luka Doncic especially, needs to pass the ball more. But there’s a hidden element to his statement that ESPN’s Tim MacMahon smartly recognized and discussed on today’s episode of The Hoop Collective.
“When JJ Redick is talking about, ‘Luka’s gotta trust the pass,’ he’s not worried about offensive strategy, because guess what? Luka ball-hogging is good offensive strategy, it’s efficient offense,” MacMahon said.
“He’s worried about, if the ball’s not moving, if guys aren’t involved, it does just completely sap their energy on defense. Luka’s passing impacts their defense, not necessarily their offense,” he explained.
This is kind of a galaxy-brained way to look at things, but it actually makes a ton of sense. Just look at any pickup game on the playground. If someone isn’t passing to their teammates, then their teammates aren’t going to give their best effort on the defensive end because they know they’re never going to see the ball anyway.
You can certainly make the argument that everyone on the Lakers is a professional and should be giving max effort regardless of whether they’re getting the ball.
But Redick and MacMahon are right that this is simply human nature, and as the leader of the team, it’s on Luka to get guys involved and bring the team together. This is especially important when so many guys are on the last year of their contracts and worried about looking good for their next payday.
The stats back this way of thinking up. “The number of passes has no correlation to their offensive success, statistically,” MacMahon said. “But their highest passing games versus their lowest passing games, they’re four points better on their defensive efficiency on the higher passing games. Ball moving leads to good defense.”
MacMahon pointed out that the Lakers are 7-0 when they have 30 assists, and after beating the Mavs on Saturday, they’re also 21-4 when they have at least 25 assists.
Everybody knows that the Lakers don’t have a ton of individual talent on defense. As a team, they rank 25th in the league in defensive rating, and even the guys that once had sterling defensive reputations, like Marcus Smart and LeBron James, are well past their defensive primes.
If sharing the ball on offense leads to even a passable defensive effort, like say, league average, then L.A.’s offense is good enough to take it places. Luka, LeBron and Austin Reaves are capable of putting up 80 points most nights on their own when they’re all healthy. That, plus some ball movement for team chemistry, could be enough to make a run.
