Over the last few years, it’s pretty much been a three-man race for MVP. If you weren’t Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, or Lamar Jackson, you might as well stay home. Joe Burrow was maybe a fourth dark horse in a couple of those years. But everything has changed in 2025. Through five weeks, none of those four guys has been all that impressive.
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Mahomes is 2-3, Josh Allen’s been mediocre by his standards, and Burrow and Jackson are both dealing with injuries (and subpar play prior to those injuries).
Despite that, Allen and Mahomes are still the top two betting favorites to win the NFL MVP this season. They’re followed by Jordan Love (?) and then Baker Mayfield, who, if we’re not employing any biases from previous years, should really be the favorite at this point.
Mayfield is fourth on the odds board, and Dallas Cowboys QB Dak Prescott is way down in 12th. That probably has to do with the fact that his team does not inspire confidence as a whole at 2-2-1.
However, if we were going purely on individual effort and numbers, it would be hard to say that anyone but Mayfield and Prescott should be battling out for the NFL’s top individual honor.
Dez Bryant, a three-time Pro Bowler who played his final two seasons with Prescott, is on the same train and even posted a screenshot about the MVP race on Twitter. And under the post, it didn’t take fans long to share their opinions about the race, who should be on top, and who should be at the bottom.
“Baker 1, DJ 2, Trevor 3, and Dak 4. Dak can’t be higher because he only has two wins, he’s not even second in his own division,” said one fan with a full MVP ranking already made up in their head.
“Baker. He actually wins games,” said another, trying to simplify the debate in Baker’s favor.
“I want Baker to win it just cause his journey. He’s a real dog,” said a third, echoing a common sentiment surrounding Mayfield’s inspirational hero-to-zero-to-hero NFL story arc.
However, Dak had his supporters as well. “Tampa has a better roster all around, Dak is playing with 4 Oline out, CD out, Turpin out, 32nd ranked defense. DAK IS CLEARLY THE MVP RN,” said one.
“Dak honestly got 1 bad INT in total, so it’s not really a conversation in that regard,” penned another.
“All Dak numbers are better with more injuries, and the last place defense not even close,” concluded another.
Dak honestly got 1 bad INT in total so it's not really a conversation in that regard
— JujitsuJerry☆ (@Jerry27Roberts) October 7, 2025
Both of these guys are putting up top 5-10 numbers in nearly every statistic. Prescott has thrown for a few more yards, while Mayfield has a couple fewer picks and a lot more impact running the ball. Both have also lost their top receiving targets to injuries.
However, we have to give Baker Mayfield the edge here. And how can you not? When’s the last time a player won MVP while playing for a 9-8 team? Never.
Prescott’s Cowboys are only 2-2-1, and apart from the Eagles, they haven’t played any really tough opponents yet. Mayfield, meanwhile, has already led his Tampa Bay Buccaneers on a whopping four fourth-quarter comebacks to push his outfit to a tie for the best record in the NFL at 4-1.
Not to mention, Mayfield also counts quality wins over the Seahawks, Falcons, and Texans, all of whom have 2+ wins this season. Prescott’s two Ws, meanwhile, have come against the Giants and Jets, who have combined for one victory through five weeks.
