Arch Manning has not played much in the NCAA, but he is the most hyped athlete in the association. His total college stats so far read as follows: 63-for-95 for 969 yards, nine TDs, and two interceptions with a 66.3 completion percentage and a 179.0 passer rating.
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Those efficiency numbers are great, but he hasn’t proved much. But bugger that, because he is the No. 1 player in the nation by most metrics. And that despite the fact that Manning has been very quiet off the field, limiting his business dealings significantly and keeping his recruitment saga entirely under wraps.
And yet, even with those minuscule numbers and Manning’s desire to stay out of the limelight, Manning is still the favorite to be the No. 1 pick in the 2026 NFL Draft. Former NFL scout John Middlekauf recently talked about how much pressure these high expectations are putting on this 21-year-old. He said that even if Manning is just “solid”, it’s going to be a disappointment.
“The hype train is kind of out of control … Unless he answers the hype train, and is like Andrew Luck immediately, I don’t know how he lives up to it. If he is just like a solid NFL prospect this year, it’s going to feel very disappointing. Because the hype train behind him is like he’s LeBron James or Tiger Woods. Which happens very, very rarely.”
As Middlekauf pointed out, however, LeBron and Tiger had both already proven themselves a decent amount. LeBron’s high school mixtape was insane, and Tiger had already been tearing up the amateur circuit. Meanwhile, Manning has yet to throw 100 NCAA passes.
“This guy hasn’t played! And we know how difficult the SEC is. I’m excited to watch him, I’m pro-Arch Manning. But I do agree that it’s gonna be hard for him to live up to the hype. I really believe that. … It’s gonna be the biggest story by far in college football.”
Arch Manning has tried his best to stay low-key, but no one will let him. He’s only made a few brand deals with Panini, EA Sports, and Red Bull, but he tops this year’s On3 NIL valuation list at $6.8 million, up from $6.6 million just a few months ago.
And whether this has anything to do with Manning is up to you, but his Longhorns are also being treated very bullishly ahead of this campaign. Participants at SEC media days recently voted on who they thought would win the most powerful conference in college football, and they said Texas.
No. 1 team in the SEC, No. 1 pick in next year’s NFL draft, No. 1 NIL valuation. That’s a lot of pressure for a 21-year-old. But if any pedigree would convince you he can go out there and meet the hype in a football setting, it’s the Manning family name.
