The NFL quarterback carousel is always going round and round. Aaron Rodgers and Russell Wilson are still stuck on it. Jameis Winston recently got off it. And despite his spot on the Atlanta Falcons roster, Kirk Cousins is standing in line to jump on it.
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Earlier this offseason, Geno Smith took an unexpected turn on it. The Las Vegas Raiders’ new signal-caller got shipped to Sin City by the Seattle Seahawks. Head coach Mike Macdonald’s team then inked Sam Darnold to a three-year, $100.5 million contract to replace Smith.
Smith led Seattle to winning records each of the last three seasons. However, the Seahawks reached 10 wins – and the playoffs – just once in that period. Their pivot from Smith to Darnold, who quarterbacked the Minnesota Vikings to a 14-3 record in 2024, is a chase for upside. Rob Gronkowski believes they’re going to regret that pursuit.
As Gronkowski and Julian Edelman debated whether Smith’s Raiders or Darnold’s Seahawks would win more games in 2025, Edelman picked Las Vegas because of the organization’s “leadership,” which includes Tom Brady. Gronkowski also rode with the Raiders, citing the presence of a dominant young tight end and his former quarterback.
“I’m going yes as well because of my guy Brock Bowers… [Geno Smith is] gonna have a reliable target at all times. They’re gonna have a system that’s gonna benefit Geno Smith… head coach Pete Carroll [and Tom] Brady [aren’t] going to let this team… be mid… yes, he outperforms Sam Darnold,” Rob Gronkowski said on Dudes on Dudes.
Geno Smith (4,320) and Sam Darnold (4,319) remarkably were separated by just one passing yard a season ago. But Darnold had 14 more touchdown passes (35) and three fewer interceptions (12) than Smith (21 TD: 15 INT). Smith did complete a higher percentage of his passes (70.4% to 66.2%), but Darnold’s passer rating (102.5) was nearly nine points higher than Smith’s (93.5).
Does this mean Darnold is clearly the better quarterback? Of course not.
How did Sam Darnold and Geno Smith perform in 2024?
Darnold’s success only came once he got into noted offensive guru Kevin O’Connell’s system. Conversely, Smith’s relatively pedestrian season came under Ryan Grubb – an offensive coordinator (OC) poached from the college ranks – and Macdonald, a defensive-minded head coach.
This year, Darnold shifts from O’Connell to Macdonald and OC Klint Kubiak’s system. Meanwhile, Smith goes from Grubb and Macdonald to Carroll – who he has established success for – and OC Chip Kelly. Kelly, the former Philadelphia Eagles and San Francisco 49ers’ head coach, most recently worked as the OC for Ohio State. But he, unlike Grubb, had NFL experience prior to this role.
In a vacuum, it seems like Darnold’s situation has gotten worse. He lost O’Connell, Justin Jefferson, and Jordan Addison – among others – and the luxury of home contests in a domed stadium. Because of other trades, he gained Jaxon Smith-Njigba and a somewhat hobbled Cooper Kupp. Can he replicate his results in an outdoor venue with worse offensive coaching and fewer weapons?
Meanwhile, Smith may have better offensive coaching in Las Vegas. But he’s now in a tougher division with three playoff teams: the Kansas City Chiefs, Los Angeles Chargers, and Denver Broncos. Wins will be hard to stack. Can he really finish above .500 for the fourth consecutive season in that situation?
Rich Eisen likes Geno Smith-Raiders marriage
There’s uncertainty surrounding both the Seahawks and Raiders for 2025. However, Seattle embarked on a much riskier path than Las Vegas. The Seahawks are aiming for the playoffs, but the Raiders merely want to establish a foundation for the future. Anything on top of that would be gravy.
This reality is why Rich Eisen is a fan of Las Vegas’ acquisition of Smith. He spoke glowingly about the move on The Rich Eisen Show, explaining how it really freed up the front office to proceed with a “best player available” approach in the 2025 NFL Draft.
“It does not mean anything but flexibility and stability… flexibility is, sixth overall pick… they can go wherever they want with that draft choice now. They’re not locked into having to get [a] quarterback… and Geno [Smith] is nothing but stable. That guy is somebody that the locker room will be able to look at and rally around.” – Rich Eisen
If Smith is one in the hand, Darnold is two in the bush. The Raiders love the consistency and reliability he offers. It’s something they’ve craved for years.
The Seahawks, though, need someone to push them above the purgatory of middle ground. The risk/reward ratio of Darnold potentially doing so is worth the swap. How the two fare in comparison to one another in 2025 will be a bigger storyline in the Pacific Northwest than it will be in Las Vegas for that same reason.
