Most people don’t know this—or have simply forgotten—but Jon Gruden, famous for his success with the Oakland Raiders and Tampa Bay Buccaneers, actually got his first major NFL job courtesy of this year’s NFC champ: the Philadelphia Eagles. His first offensive schemes were cooked up for the Birds while he served as their offensive coordinator from 1995 to 1997. And yet, even this Philly alum can’t bring himself to take the Eagles to win Super Bowl 59.
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To the delight of thousands, Gruden put out a 55-minute video analyzing this Big Game matchup between the Birds and the defending-champion Kansas City Chiefs. It’s probably the most in-depth Super Bowl analysis you’ll see, so it’s well worth a watch.
However, if you’re an Eagles fan, you might want to cut out early. In the end, “Chucky” took the Chiefs to win by a score of 27-23.
“Well, you gotta pick somebody, and as an ex-Philadelphia Eagle myself, and having worked with the great Ron Jaworski, I love the Eagles. But it’s in New Orleans and they threw a lot of interceptions there, lost to the Raiders.. I’m going with the Chiefs! 27-23! They find a way to win again late.”
Gruden is, of course, referring to the Eagles’ first trip to the Super Bowl 45 years ago. In that game, which was played in New Orleans like Super Bowl 59, Philly QB Ron Jaworski threw three picks and lost a fumble as they were dominated 27-10 by the Raiders. Gruden thinks history is going to repeat itself to an extent.
Philly also had a season-low 15 points in their victorious Week 3 visit to New Orleans this season, though we’re not sure how much significance that holds in this context.
Thankfully, Gruden penned down a few more reasons for going against his old buddies in the City of Brotherly Love. While all the attention is on Mahomes, Hurts, and Barkley, it’s the defenses that should be the difference, according to Gruden.
Gruden says the Chiefs’ defense is the key to the Super Bowl
Over the last two years, following the departure of offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy, the balance of power in K.C. has noticeably swung from Patrick Mahomes and the offense to Steve Spagnuolo’s defense. From 2018 to 2022, the Chiefs were mediocre on defense, allowing the 20th-most points and the 11th-most yards.
However, over the last two seasons, they’ve allowed the 2nd-fewest yards and the fewest points as the offense has sputtered due to a lack of talent and some bad injury luck. Jon Gruden believes Spagnuolo, who is widely viewed as the best assistant coach in football, is going to be the catalyst for this Chiefs win. The way he attempts to stop this balanced Eagles attack will be crucial.
The main issue will be Saquon Barkley, who is the most dangerous when he’s able to get to the outside behind those “athletic linemen that can get out on the edge and block corners.” Thankfully for K.C., Philly has one small weakness: responding to blitzes. That just so happens to be Spagnuolo’s specialty.
In the end, however, Gruden believes it will all be about stopping the run. Most importantly, they need to get Philly into “3rd-and-long situations.” Those have not been common for the Tush Push connoisseurs this year.
“The Chiefs are gonna have to use some run defenders to get into 3rd down. So, look for 98 Wharton, look for 69 Penell, 91 Nnadi. These are three defensive linemen that have to get in the game and go up against this great center, Cam Jurgens… and these mammoth guards, man. They gotta keep these linebackers clean and they gotta limit Saquon Barkley. And get into some 2nd-and-10s and 3rd-and-longs,” Gruden explained.
Stopping Barkley and his massive yet unnaturally athletic offensive line will be a tall task. However, even if the Eagles have a good overall game, Spagnuolo always seems to know exactly when to dial up the right blitz from the right area of the field. Just as he did on that crucial 4th down in the AFC Championship.
