Ahead of the NFL’s final regular season Sunday, the league MVP race is far from settled. Per FanDuel Sportsbook, Josh Allen (-270) and Lamar Jackson (+200) have the best odds of winning the award.
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Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow has more touchdown passes (42) and passing yards (4,641) than both Allen and Jackson. Despite this, he sits a distant third (+2500) in the race. During a conversation with ESPN’s Cam Newton, Burrow acknowledged his stats are MVP-worthy.
However, he doesn’t see himself claiming the honors this season because of the Bengals’ overall struggles.
“I’m proud of the season that I’ve had. I’d love to win an MVP at some point in my career. This year’s probably not that year just cause of how the season has gone for us. I think I’m deserving of it, but… the MVP award usually goes to the quarterback of the best team. And that’s not us this year.”
Cincinnati (8-8) still has a chance to make the playoffs. The Bengals must beat the Pittsburgh Steelers (10-6) this evening, then have the Denver Broncos and Miami Dolphins lose tomorrow to get in.
NFL.com gauged Cincinnati had a 6% chance of snagging the AFC’s final postseason spot entering Week 18.
The numbers Joe Burrow has posted in the 2024 campaign are remarkable. With 359 yards against the Steelers, he’d become the 10th quarterback in NFL history to throw for 5,000 yards in a single season.
Joe Burrow to lose out on MVP honors despite impressive stats
While reaching such a rare milestone hasn’t guaranteed MVP status in the past, Burrow’s production goes beyond yardage. As Newton noted, Burrow is “one of three players all-time to throw for 4,500 yards, 40 passing touchdowns, and fewer than 10 interceptions” in a single season.
Tom Brady (2007) and Aaron Rodgers (2011) won MVP when they accomplished the same feat. Burrow won’t be joining their club. And unless Jackson captures the distinction – after becoming the first player in NFL history to throw for 4,000 yards and run for 900 yards in the same season this afternoon – Burrow will lose out to someone with less impressive overall production in Allen.
That’s not to disparage Allen’s case. He accomplished multiple league firsts – passing, rushing, and receiving a touchdown in one game, then passing and rushing for three scores each in another – this year.
He also kept the Buffalo Bills near the top of the AFC East standings when many anticipated they’d take a step back from last season. Like Burrow or Jackson, he would be a deserving winner.
There are multiple lenses through which MVP worthiness can be viewed. Allen has captained the team with the best record. Burrow has the best raw numbers. Jackson lags behind both in one aspect, but bests each of them in another and has the better analytical profile.
Regardless of who comes out on top, they’ve brought fans a compelling race for the ages. And whichever man wins can take great pride in their victory.