Injured Arch Manning Suffers $2.1 Million NIL Blow as Matthew Caldwell Delivers for Texas Longhorns

Prior to the start of the 2025 college football season, the Texas Longhorns were being booked as the betting favorites to take home the national title, while their hotshot debutante of a starter and generational prospect, Arch Manning, was listed as the odds-on favorite to claim the Heisman trophy.

Now, here we are just two months into the season, and both of those particular numbers are long gone, and the same is true for Manning’s NIL dealings. Prior to kickoff on opening day, the heir to the Manning throne was given a total NIL valuation of $6.8 million, but now, he’s lost nearly a third of that value.

Thanks to On3, we now know that Manning’s total NIL valuation is currently sitting at $4.7 million following Texas’ 45-38 win over the Mississippi State Bulldogs. What’s even more unfortunate, however, is that he wasn’t even able to enjoy the fruits of his labor.

After throwing 46 times and completing 29 of those attempts for a total of 346 receiving yards, three touchdowns, and one interception, just to make it to overtime, Manning would find himself on the receiving end of a two-man tackle courtesy of Isaac Smith and Kedrick Bingley-Jones.

In those initial moments when Manning was being escorted to the medical tent, it seemed as if the Longhorns were destined to find their third loss of the season, but their backup quarterback had other plans. Matthew Caldwell would stride onto the field in place of his QB1, and he would need only one pass completion to finish the job that Manning had started.

Caldwell’s lone pass attempt on the day, which came on a play-action pass in the red zone, proved to be good for a 10-yard touchdown grab for Emmett Mosley V. Not only was it the game-winning throw and Mosley’s second score of the day, it was also a thing of beauty.

While it’s certainly reassuring for Texas to discover that they may have a viable substitute for Manning in the event that he misses any extended period of time, it’s anything but for Manning’s bottom line. Anytime a backup quarterback manages to steal a big moment in a game like this, questions are inevitably asked.

As his NIL valuations continue to drop, those questions will likely bedevil Manning, but thankfully, he already seems open to the fact that this may not be his last season in college football. Given the fact that the demand for him in the National Football League has considerably cooled ever since he first decided to throw 170 passing yards and an interception against Ohio State, that will likely be the case.

Simply put, unless he’s able to play himself back towards the upper end of the first round of the NFL Draft, Manning will continue to reside with his herd in Texas, even if it comes at the temporary expense of his pockets.