Injured Arch Manning Suffers $2.1 Million NIL Blow as Matthew Caldwell Delivers for Texas Longhorns

Before the 2025 college football season, the Texas Longhorns were touted as favorites to take home the national title. And their hotshot debutante starter and generational prospect, Arch Manning, was listed as the odds-on favorite to claim the Heisman trophy. In just two months into the season, both of those expectations have been watered down. Well, Manning’s NIL dealings have taken a hit, too.

On the opening day of the season, the heir to the Manning throne was given a total NIL valuation of $6.8 million. But now, he’s lost nearly a third of that value.

Manning’s total NIL valuation is currently reportedly sitting at $4.7 million after Texas’ 45-38 win over the Mississippi State Bulldogs in Week 9 on Saturday. What’s even more unfortunate, however, is that he wasn’t even able to enjoy the fruits of his labor.

After throwing 46 times and completing 29 of those attempts for a total of 346 receiving yards, three touchdowns, and one interception, just to make it to overtime, Manning found himself on the receiving end of a two-man tackle courtesy of Isaac Smith and Kedrick Bingley-Jones.

In those initial moments when Manning was being escorted to the medical tent, it seemed as if the Longhorns were destined to end up with their third loss of the season. But their backup quarterback had other plans. Matthew Caldwell needed only one pass completion to finish the job that Manning had started.

Caldwell’s lone pass attempt on the day, which came on a play-action pass in the red zone, proved to be good for a 10-yard touchdown grab for Emmett Mosley V. Not only was it the game-winning throw and Mosley’s second score of the day, it was also a thing of beauty.

While it’s certainly reassuring for Texas to discover that they may have a viable substitute for Manning if he misses any extended period of time, it’s anything but for Manning’s bottom line. Anytime a backup quarterback manages to steal a big moment in a game like this, questions are inevitably asked.

As his NIL valuations continue to drop, those questions will likely bedevil Manning. He already seems open to the fact that this may not be his last season in college football.

Given the fact that the demand for him in the National Football League has considerably cooled ever since he threw 170 passing yards and an interception against Ohio State in the college football season opener, this dip in demand was inevitable.

Simply put, unless he’s able to play himself back toward the upper end of the first round of the NFL Draft, Manning will continue to reside with his herd in Texas, even if it comes at the temporary expense of his pockets.