Ever since the San Francisco 49ers traded up and revealed their intention of drafting a QB with the 3rd overall pick, the odds on who they draft has been a constant rollercoaster. The tremendous amount of fluctuation has seen a whirlwind of bettors enter the market, making it the highest bet-on draft prop in NFL history.
It’s pretty much a lock that the San Francisco 49ers will draft either Trey Lance, Mac Jones, or Justin Fields. But locking in on who the 1 will be amongst the 3 has been a question amongst all draft circles.
The betting has seen so much volume because it’s a high-profile spot with a tremendous amount of fluctuation. There are the garden variety rumors and buzz and head coach Kyle Shanahan certainly didn’t do much to tip his hand when he said things are so uncertain we don’t know if we will be living by draft day.
Odds to be the No.3 overall pick (via @DKSportsbook):
Mac Jones (-250)
Trey Lance (+250)
Justin Fields (+500)
— PFF (@PFF) April 29, 2021
2021 NFL Draft Odds: Mac Jones Favorite for No. 3 draft pick.
When PointsBet opened the market on Feb. 13, the pick was still held with the Miami Dolphins, and the favorites were Alabama WR DeVonta Smith and LSU WR Ja’Marr Chase (+250). But ever since the 49ers moved up, it has been a quarterback carousel.
With QB’s Trevor Lawrence and Zach Wilson pretty much locked in at No. 1 and 2, the majority of the betting has been amongst Ohio State QB Justin Fields, NDSU QB Trey Lance, and Alabama QB Mac jones.
“As much as the 49ers love Mac Jones, and they do, I believe that the gap between Mac Jones and the other QBs like Trey Lance has been narrowed considerably … I can tell you over the weekend they did not know who they were going to take.”
— Get Up (@GetUpESPN) April 28, 2021
By March 30, Justin Fields had come from +800 to the favorite spot of +150, with Mac Jones and Trey Lance close behind at +160. Justin Fields and Trey Lance were being touted by analysts even before entering the 2020 NCAAF season. But Mac Jones skyrocketed through the draft ranks and betting odds.
Even after leading his team to the National Championship, up until the 49ers trade Mac Jones was considered a middle to late 1st round pick. But over the past couple of months, analysts believe Jones’ playstyle and 49ers HC Kyle Shanahan’s system seem to fit like a glove.
.@ShannonSharpe on Kyle Shanahan having the last say on the 49ers draft pick:
“Kyle feels like he can win with any of the 3 remaining top QBs in the draft. But I believe Kyle likes Mac Jones the most because he reminds him of Matt Ryan.” pic.twitter.com/UF6jqnP9fr
— UNDISPUTED (@undisputed) April 27, 2021
By Wednesday afternoon, Jones — who wasn’t even on the board for the spot until the end of March — emerged as the -400 favorite, with Lance at +220 and Fields at +600. PointsBet says 55.6% of the handle is on Jones now.
The 49ers pick at 3 will arguably be the biggest story entering the draft. Will it be Lance, Jones, or Fields? Only time will tell. But it will definitely be exciting to look out for.