Arch Manning has had unprecedented hype since junior high. And how could he not? He was built like a quarterback and is the scion of the greatest QB family in NFL history. His uncles are both future Hall of Famers, and his grandpa was the No. 2 overall pick back in the 1970s. It’s no wonder he has the highest NIL valuation and the shortest odds to be taken No. 1 overall in the 2026 NFL Draft.
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But of course, Manning and the previously No. 1-ranked Texas Longhorns were thrown into the fire on the road against the defending champion Ohio State Buckeyes in Week 1.
Ohio State allowed just over 12 points and 254 yards a game last year to lead the nation, and they didn’t lose many defensive starters to the NFL Draft. It was always going to be a tough go for Manning in his first start as the bona fide QB1.
But even taking the Buckeyes’ tough defense into account, Manning’s performance was still poor. He was 17-for-30 for 170 yards, one TD, and one INT, and he added 10 rushes for 38 yards on the ground. He also missed more than a few open receivers in both pressure and non-pressure spots. It’s still just one game, but pundits like Ryan Clark are nonetheless ready to declare Manning to be overrated.
“The problem with Arch Manning is more so other people than him. He didn’t ask for these expectations… other people gave him these expectations without doing their due diligence. Arch Manning, period, point blank, is neither a generational nor a transcendent talent,” Clark said in an episode of The Pivot.
Clark then drew some interesting comparisons to Caleb Williams and Trevor Lawrence. Both of those guys came in as freshmen and won a QB competition against an established starter. Manning, meanwhile, came in and sat for two years behind a guy (Quinn Ewers) who was just selected in the seventh and final round of the 2025 NFL Draft.
“Arch Manning can’t run like LeNorris Sellers, he can’t throw like Brett Nussmeier, or Bryce Underwood. He’s not Trevor Lawrence. He’s not Caleb Williams. Those guys were what people felt like were generational, can’t miss college quarterbacks. College football talents.”
Arch Manning is not a generational talent. People placed expectations upon him without any evidence. He’s not Trevor Lawrence or Caleb Williams, who beat out returning starters as freshman. Instead Arch sat being a 7th round pick for 2 years.
He’s a good player who will be very… pic.twitter.com/Sml45QoW1B
— Ryan Clark (@Realrclark25) September 2, 2025
Clark could be right about just how good Manning is, but it’s also far too early to be making such sweeping declarations. Both things can be true. In any event, Manning probably just played the toughest opponent he will get all season, so he and the Longhorns can take solace in that at least.
And Arch Manning should be able to get his confidence back pretty quickly. His next three games are all at home and all against subpar competition: San Jose State (Mountain West), UTEP (C-USA), and Sam Houston State (C-USA). If the 21-year-old prodigy can’t get back on track during that stretch, he might be even worse than Clark says.
