Aaron Rodgers is officially returning for another season in the NFL, this time as the newest quarterback of the Pittsburgh Steelers. After signing with the team this week, the big question is: What version of Rodgers are the Steelers getting? Will it be the Green Bay legend who dominated for over a decade, or the less impressive Jets version whose recent stretch has raised some doubts about his abilities?
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Statistically, Rodgers’ most recent full season wasn’t awful — he threw for 3,897 yards, 28 touchdowns, and 11 interceptions. But numbers don’t tell the whole story. Despite all the talent around him, his team managed just five wins. There was no real stability on the coaching front in New York — something he’s sure to get in Pittsburgh under Mike Tomlin. That structure and leadership could make a big difference. The question is: Will we see the “old Aaron” again?
Could Rodgers return to MVP form and win his fifth league MVP? As unlikely as it may sound to some, history says it’s possible.
Kay Adams is one of the few publicly betting on Rodgers to follow a similar path. While many doubt whether A-Rod can replicate the greatness of someone like Brady, Adams pointed out that we’ve seen this story before — not just with Brady, but also with Peyton Manning.
In 2008, Brady tore his ACL in the very first game of the season and missed the entire year, much like Rodgers, who tore his Achilles just four snaps into the 2023 season against the Bills. When Brady returned in 2009, he wasn’t quite himself. He threw for over 4,000 yards with 28 touchdowns and 13 interceptions. The Patriots went 10-6, solid, but not elite.
Then came year two. In 2010, Brady came roaring back with 3,900 yards, 36 touchdowns, just four interceptions, a passer rating of 111, and a 14-2 record. He won the league MVP that year. It was a classic Brady resurgence.
“Tom Brady gets his ACL shot. His first year back it was ok. It wasn’t a typical Brady standard. Look at what Tom Brady did in year 2 and won his 2nd MVP award. You are saying that’s Tom Brady. Stop comparing Aaron Rodgers to Tom Brady. Legendary QB status, elite of the elite, one of the best to ever do it. How about Peyton Manning? You can say those are different scenarios. All those things, but the Steelers are ready to go.”
Manning missed the 2011 season due to a serious neck injury that required multiple surgeries. Many thought his best days were behind him. But he returned, joined a new team in the Broncos, and went on to have some of the most productive years of his career. He won an MVP and led his team to a Super Bowl appearance, all in his 2nd year after returning from injury. Rodgers could follow this blueprint.
According to Kay Adams, while people can come up with a long list of reasons why Aaron Rodgers won’t return to MVP form, the reality is that things are lining up in his favor. He’s now with a team that has the pieces to make a deep playoff run — all they’ve needed is a reliable, high-level quarterback. And with Rodgers, they might finally have that.
So, what are the odds of the former Packers star winning his fifth MVP? According to FanDuel, not very high. Rodgers is currently tied for 22nd in MVP odds at +7500 — the same as Bryce Young, Geno Smith, Bo Nix, Michael Penix Jr., and J.J. McCarthy.
That’s a surprising and arguably disrespectful position, especially considering Rodgers has already proven far more than most of the names on that list. Some of them didn’t even take a snap in the NFL last season.
Still, that’s the reality. But what Aaron Rodgers does have on his side is history, and the well-documented trend of quarterbacks improving significantly in their second year after returning from a major injury. Rodgers already looked sharp toward the end of last season during limited practice sessions with the Jets.
