Geno Smith just secured the bag! The veteran quarterback inked a deal worth up to $85.5 million for two years with the Las Vegas Raiders, locking himself in as the starter in Sin City. For a quarterback who bounced around for years around the league (5 teams in 13 years) and was once written off, this deal isn’t just a payday—it’s a statement.
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But in the NFL, money doesn’t always silence draft buzz, especially with the Raiders holding the No. 6 overall pick and Tom Brady having a soft spot for Shedeur Sanders. So, speculation about whether they’ll still pursue a quarterback in April is unsurprisingly still on the table.
But if NFL Insider Ian Rapoport is to be believed, Geno’s new contract doesn’t just lock in his short-term future—it sends a clear message about the team’s draft intentions.
“It’s two years, $75 million at its base. That includes $66.5 million in guarantees,” Rapoport noted (via The Insiders). “That puts Geno right around where Derek Carr is with the Saints, and above where Sam Darnold landed with Seattle. Based on this contract and what I’ve heard, I would be very surprised if the Raiders take a quarterback in the first round.”
Rapoport further nuanced his point by noting that Geno Smith’s new deal effectively ties him to the team through at least 2025, meaning the Raiders are all in. Maybe Smith holds his own this upcoming season and gets to lead them again in 2026. “The Raiders are picking in the top 10. But this deal tells me they see Geno as their guy for the next two years,” said the analyst.
One could argue: with Geno turning 35 this October, securing Shedeur Sanders this season would be a great long-term deal for the team. But as things stand, this is a luxury Brady’s team simply can’t afford because quarterbacking wasn’t the only issue they had last year. Their running game was equally bad, if not worse, with none of their designated backs rushing more than 500 yards.
Considering new OC Chip Kelly is someone who loves his runners, it’s honestly a no-brainer for them to draft a prospect like Ashton Jeanty. Adding the Boise State star to the trifecta of Maxx Crosby, Brock Bowers, and Geno Smith would mean that the Raiders now have four cornerstone pieces to build their new empire.
Last but not least, another reason why signing Sanders doesn’t make much sense for the Raiders is the fact that he offers nothing different than Smith. Like the Buffs star, the former Seattle star is highly accurate, something ESPN analyst Mina Kimes delved into.
“In 2024, Geno was second in the league behind Joe Burrow in On-Target Percentage and fourth in Completion Percentage Over Expected. That tells you, despite a messy offensive situation in Seattle, he was still one of the most accurate quarterbacks in the NFL,” she said via NFL Live.
However, while a quarterback at No. 6 seems unlikely, it’s not impossible. If Shedeur Sanders is still on the board and Brady’s voice gets louder, the Raiders might just go from “Geno’s team” to “Shedeur’s future.” But for now, it’s Geno’s show in Vegas—and he’s earned it.
