Carlos Alcaraz has given Novak Djokovic an opportunity to regain the top ranking from him following his loss to American Tommy Paul in the quarterfinals of the Rogers Cup. The Spaniard had a deja vu against Paul who had beaten him in the same tournament 12 months back. While he still leads the Serbian in the ATP rankings by some points, it is a precarious lead that could slip away by the end of the American swing of the season.
Alcaraz will be looking to end the year as the top ranked player in the world, an honor that is coveted by tennis players, none more so than Djokovic who has done it a record 7 times in his career. The Serbian had to make do without playing on American soil last year given his unvaccinated status, eventually falling down to the fifth place at the end of 2022 while Alcaraz became the youngest year-ending No. 1.
Best-Case scenario for Carlos Alcaraz is not enough
Having lost in the very first round of the Rogers Cup last year, Carlos Alcaraz had gained a mere 10 points in 2022 in Canada. This meant he had a golden opportunity to win new points at the event and with Djokovic skipping it he could have run away with the top ranking had he won the tournament.
As things stand, however, Carlos has lost to Tommy Paul once again, winning just 180 points as a quarterfinalist. This will reflect on the rankings board on Monday when the points are updated, bringing his total to 9,395 while Djokovic will have a total of 8,795 points, 600 behind the Spaniard.
With the Cincinnati Masters and the US Open coming up in the next few weeks, the 600 points gap is not a comfortable cushion. It gives Djokovic ample opportunity to catch up and puts the pressure on Alcaraz to fight for his life.
How Novak Djokovic can regain the top rank without winning titles
Novak Djokovic can only gain points once he kicks off his hard court swing, having not played either of the tournaments in 2022. Alcaraz, on the other hand, has to defend 180 points at Cincinnati where he was a quarterfinalist in 2022 and 2000 points at the US Open which he’d won.
Should Alcaraz win the Cincinnati Masters, he would add 820 points to his tally while defending his US Open title would mean he keeps those 2000 points too. This would be the best case scenario for the Spaniard, bringing his total to 10,215 points.
Meanwhile, Djokovic need not even win both titles to surpass his young rival. Quick math shows that he would need 1,420 points to equal Carlos at the end of the US Open. Continuing the assumption that Alcaraz wins Cincinnati and the US Open, Djokovic’s best case scenario would be winning 600 points as a runner-up at Cincinnati and 1,200 points as the runner-up at US Open. This would add 1,800 points to his tally, catapulting him past Alcaraz with 10,595 points.
As a best case scenario for him, should Djokovic win both tournaments, he will have a very comfortable cushion between him and Alcaraz by the end of the final Major of the season.
