UFC 315’s main event already has fans excited for the fight alone. Unbeaten in his last 11 fights, Belal Muhammad will defend his Welterweight title for the first time against the unbeaten rising star Jack Della Maddalena at the event. Crucially, the result is expected to reveal who Islam Makhachev and Ilia Topuria will face next.
Assuming Belal retains, Topuria will debut in the lightweight division with a huge encounter against reigning champ Islam Makhachev. However, Della Maddalena mustn’t be discounted.
The Australian is on a 17-match winning streak, spanning five different promotions. And he is more than capable of beating Belal and his ‘Canelo hands’. Should Maddalena prevail, the permutations start to get interesting.
Topuria has confirmed this route during the UFC 315 press event, with Dana White also verifying his claim. However, according to analyst Laura Sanko, Makhachev is flexible about his options.
Should JDM win, Makhachev will vacate the Lightweight title and move up to Welterweight to challenge him. This leaves the Lightweight title to be contested by Topuria and #2 Charles Oliveira.
But even if that is not the case, Sanko feels that his close friend Belal will have entered Makhachev’s thoughts.
“I have a gut feeling that Islam is somewhat open to fighting Belal… Islam wouldn’t prefer it because there is so much mutual respect and time shared and all these things but it’s kind of like, ‘Yeah but I also want that second belt and whoever’s there is there,’” Sanko noted, speaking to Submission Radio.
For Belal, it is that close friendship that stands in the way of that encounter. Belal has gone as far as to suggest that he may move up to middleweight should Makhachev make the jump to welterweight, such is the level of respect.
Notably, when prodded by Henry Cejudo about a potential fight between Belal and Islam, the lightweight champion’s mentor, Khabib Nurmagomedov, claimed that while it depended on the fighters entirely, he would feel good about it in his heart.
Meanwhile, Sanko also believed that despite the wrestling-stacked lineup in the welterweight division, Belal would theoretically be the strongest challenge to Makhachev’s campaign.
Moving up the divisions is always a physical test. But the UFC analyst asserts that if anyone can make it look easy, it’s Makhachev. “I still think he can do it. I think he can be dominant at 170 lbs. I do. Largely because he is the best MMA fighter in the world right now,” she added.
“I don’t think he’s going to be a very small welterweight once he allows himself to really frame out,” judged Sanko, before being struck by a startling realization. “What if he gets better?” she questions, relishing the prospect of Makhachev roaring through the welterweight division.
But in the likely scenario that Islam doesn’t move up in weight, is the Topuria fight still on, especially with the former featherweight champion already announcing a fight date for the International Fight Week?
If not Belal, what about Topuria? Khabib doesn’t think so
An Makhachev vs Topuria showdown is a fight that everyone in the UFC wants to see. Everyone except Khabib. Topuria’s lightweight title shot now seems to be a case of when, not if, for the Spaniard.
But for now, according to Cejudo, it seems less likely that Topuria will get his shot against Makhachev.
“I remember talking to Khabib, and Khabib said it’s not fair for Ilia to skip the line and go after the title shot with Islam because that’s all Islam’s been doing,” Cejudo revealed in an interview with MMA Junkie a few weeks ago.
“He gave [Alexander] Volkanovski a couple title [shots] where he has gone up. So I don’t even think it’s going to be Islam’s choice. I think Khabib is going to step in and be like, ‘He needs to fight the No. 1 contender,'” Triple C noted.
More recently, Khabib has doubled down on his opinion of Topuria, claiming that fighting the Spaniard simply doesn’t bode well for Islam’s legacy. Furthermore, Islam’s coach, Javier Mendez has continued to call for handing Justin Gaethje a title shot against the incumbent.
While the permutations from UFC 315 offer a clear pathway for 2025 and possibly beyond, there’s always room for twists and turns along the way.
