Drawing conclusions from pre-season testing isn’t always wise, as many teams tend to conceal their true potential. However, if there was one thing certain after the 2025 test in Bahrain, it was that McLaren remains the team to beat.
Not only were McLaren the fastest during their qualifying runs, but they also led the way in race simulations—a fact reinforced by paddock experts.
But are McLaren truly invincible? Can no one challenge them for the crown? Before the three-day outing in Bahrain, many of those same experts believed Ferrari would be the most likely contenders, given that they finished just 14 points behind McLaren last season in P2.
However, another team could potentially pose a threat to both.
F1 journalist Scott Mitchell-Malm believes that Mercedes and Ferrari were “almost inseparable” in terms of performance in Sakhir.
Lewis Hamilton and Charles Leclerc matched both George Russell and Kimi Antonelli in both the morning and afternoon’s session, which suggested that they were fast under most conditions. Both had strong results to show for the work they put in and Mitchell-Malm also highlighted a key issue that they both shared.
“They have got slightly different weaknesses it seems though,” Mitchell-Malm said via The Race’s YouTube channel. “The Ferrari when the front gives up seems to translate into a bit of understeer; the front gets a bit weak, it is hard to get the nose in.”
He insisted that the W16 locked up very easily. Unsure what could have been the reason, Mitchell-Malm pointed out how both Russell and Antonelli locked up more than any other driver duo.
#F1 2025 Season
⬛️Mercedes W16 Analysis⬛️
Key points:
Front nose revised – connected to 1st element➡️Aimed to generate more front load to improve low-speed performance
Revised Floor Edge (not much can be seen visually though except for a strake added under the first vortex… pic.twitter.com/kx06N5SUYm— Overtake Fans (@overtakefans) February 26, 2025
Alas, Mercedes’ results could also be misleading. The Bahrain test took place in much cooler conditions than usual—the kind in which Mercedes cars tend to excel—meaning their true pace may not hold up when the season kicks off in two weeks in Australia.
That said, the possibility of a Mercedes resurgence cannot be ruled out. If the Silver Arrows have indeed become competitive again, what does that mean for Red Bull, the team that dominated in 2022 and 2023?
Red Bull fails to impress
Red Bull’s superstar Max Verstappen had a poor end to the 2024 season. He won the title, so that, of course, was historic. But he finished with just two wins in the last 14 races of the campaign, which showed how far behind Red Bull was in the development race.
Heading into the new campaign, Red Bull seemed confident about fielding a much stronger car.
However, Red Bull Technical Director Pierre Wache admitted that their testing was not as good as expected. “I am not as happy as I could be because the car did not respond how we wanted at times, but it is going in the right direction, just maybe the magnitude of the direction was not as big as we expected“, he said.
There was also massive uncertainty surrounding the car’s balance. With the team experimenting with different setups right until the end, it indicates that Red Bull never really found the optimal setup for their car.
If these issues persist, 2025 could mark the end of Verstappen’s title-winning run.
