The Mexican Grand Prix is one of the most unpredictable races on the F1 calendar because of the unique conditions that the teams have to adapt to at the Autodromo Hermanos Rodriguez Circuit. These conditions pose a special challenge for the strategy team, making it a nightmare for them to plan effectively.
This year, the FIA has implemented another key change to the event which will make things even more difficult for the strategists.
High altitude: A challenge for aero balance in Mexico
Located over 2,200 m (7,300 ft) above sea level, the Mexico City circuit is the highest-altitude track in F1, and this altitude significantly reduces air density. Less air density means less natural downforce from aerodynamic elements like the front and rear wings, so teams face a delicate balancing act with their car setups.
They aim to generate enough downforce to keep the cars stable in slow and medium-speed corners, yet minimize drag for higher top speeds on the long main straight. It’s a tough equation for aerodynamicists, as the cars need to be fine-tuned to compensate for the thinner air.
2,240 metres above sea level, Mexico City presents a different challenge for our drivers, cars and team
Esteban and Pierre chat through what it’s like for them as drivers ➡️️#Alpine #MexicoGP pic.twitter.com/S7zMKLJZdw
— BWT Alpine Formula One Team (@AlpineF1Team) October 29, 2023
Teams often run setups that would be typical for high downforce tracks like Monaco, but in Mexico, the top speeds are typical to a track like Monza which requires a much lower downforce setup.
Lack of helpful comparable data
Because of these extreme conditions, teams have very little useful data from other races to draw on. With no other track on the calendar replicating the high-altitude environment of Mexico, strategists can’t look back on previous races to predict how their cars will perform.
Even the data from previous seasons is not very relevant because the cars evolve a great deal between any two seasons. This unpredictability puts added stress on the strategists, making every call on car setup, fuel load, and pit stop timing a challenging decision.
Unpredictable tire wear due to varying downforce load
The high altitude also complicates tire strategy because despite using more downforce setups, the reduced air pressure means the tires naturally have varying grip levels in different sections of the track, causing them to slide more and therefore increasing degradation.
What makes the Mexican GP even harder on the tires is the heavy braking zone into Turn 1, which leads to higher levels of tire wear and places a lot of strain on the brakes as well.
Changing track conditions
The high-altitude nature of the track also creates unpredictable weather patterns as clouds can come in quickly, cooling the track in minutes, and if the sun breaks through, the track can heat up just as fast. These fluctuations make it quite challenging to find the best tire strategy.
High risk of safety cars and red flags
The Mexican GP has historically seen its fair share of crashes, often resulting in multiple safety car periods, or in worst cases, red flags. The tight corners through the stadium section followed by the long straights increase the likelihood of drivers being close on the track causing incidents both when exiting the final corner and down into turn 1.
Aquí la largada del #MexicoGP desde la Zona Azul del Autódromo Hermanos Rodríguez.
Max Verstappen superó a ambos Mercedes, Ricciardo le pegó a Bottas y Checo Pérez se quedó con la P3. #DonChecoGP #F1ESTA pic.twitter.com/xON312RvMB
— Don Checo Perez Shitposting (@ChecoPerezDios) November 7, 2021
Strategists need to always have a series of backup plans and be ready to take advantage of or navigate through the effects of any unplanned stoppages or slowdowns.
Reduced DRS Zone in 2024
This year, the FIA has shortened the DRS zone on the start-finish straight by 75 meters, making overtaking just that little bit harder. Normally, the long straight combined with a full-length DRS zone provided one of the best chances to overtake, but the reduced zone will make the DRS less effective.
The DRS zone on the main straight has been shortened by 75 meters!
It used to be activated 165 meters after the final turn but now it’s activated 240 meters after the final turn!
@fia#F1 #MexicoGP pic.twitter.com/EeTctHduVa
— Fastest Pitstop (@FastestPitStop) October 24, 2024
For strategists, this adjustment will force them to think beyond just counting on DRS to help their drivers gain positions. Instead, teams will need to consider alternative strategies, like attempting an undercut or overcut, to help their drivers move up the order.
However, these strategies come with their own set of risks, especially on an unpredictable track like in Mexico. An undercut can backfire if the new tires degrade faster than expected or take longer to get up to working temperatures.
Similarly, an overcut can go wrong if something like a sudden safety car throws off the timing of the pit stop, potentially leading to the driver falling down the order. With the many unpredictable elements at play in Mexico, strategists face a constant risk of making a call that could backfire.
