The events that unfold at Martinsville this weekend will be the deciding factor for who will fill the final two slots for the championship finale race at Phoenix Raceway.
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Joe Gibbs Racing veteran Denny Hamlin has been eyeing a championship ever since he stepped foot into the top division nearly two decades back. Alas, so far the ultimate prize has been far from his reach.
Based on the current points standings, Hamlin enters the final Round of 8 race with a negative 18-point deficit, hence a win would be crucial for him to cement his seat before the championship decider on November 10th.
However, the task at hand will not be a walk in the park considering he’d have to fight the likes of Kyle Larson and Chase Elliott, both of whom have won a championship in the years prior.
Both Elliott and Larson, along with Hamlin have had a really good season so far with 1, 7, and 3 wins to their names respectively. But considering how luck usually does not side with the #11 Toyota driver, will this year be any different?
Looking at the current odds between the playoff drivers, it’s Larson who leads the speculation charts with the odds of 4-1. Meanwhile, Hamlin too at 4-1 has equally favourable odds to battle it out against the Hendrick Motorsports driver.
Both Larson and Hamlin are the closest to the cutoff and have the best chance of making it to the championship decider. However, with Team Penske contender Ryan Blaney standing next in line with the odds of 6-1, William Byron at 8-1, and Elliott at 9-1, the competition for the win will be as intense as imaginable.
Will this year be Hamlin’s year?
Hamlin would have secured himself for the race at Phoenix last weekend itself had he not been overtaken by Tyler Reddick and Ryan Blaney during the dying stages of the race. But then, there are always ifs and buts in the world of motorsports.
Last year, Hamlin had a great run at Martinsville leading most of the race, but was eventually passed by Blaney who ended up securing himself for the race at Phoenix. The JGR driver, meanwhile, was eliminated with an eight-point deficit.
Similarly back in 2022, he had almost made it into the Final Four, but Trackhouse Racing‘s Ross Chastain snatched it away after he executed his once-in-a-lifetime wall-riding maneuver on the final corner.
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Thanks to the extra speed the melon man was able to beat Hamlin to the line at the last second. There has always been something or the other that denies Hamlin a shot at the championship.
Fans of the 54-time race winner would cherish seeing him take the checkered flag ahead of his rivals at Phoenix, but so would fans of the other drivers in contention. Hence, the answer to Hamlin’s chances this year hangs in the court of lady luck and would only be known after this weekend’s race.
