Kevin Harvick won’t be running in the Cup Series after this season and has been savoring every track NASCAR visits this year. There is one thing that has still not reached his grasp on his final season though – a win to lock him into the playoffs. Regardless, Harvick still finds himself in playoff spots at the moment with points alone.
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Now with just three races remaining, there’s not much time left for the 2014 Cup champion to score that one win. But what happens if he doesn’t? Well, it turns out that mathematically, the Stewart-Haas Racing driver could miss the playoffs altogether despite his points cushion.
Is it possible for Kevin Harvick to not make the playoffs?
Looking at the drivers currently in the top 16, there are four drivers who remain winless and could be kicked out of contention. On Twitter, a fan asked, “Wouldn’t Harvick be locked in on points? 3 races left with maximum points in a given week at 60? Or am I mathing wrong?“
Soon enough, Fox Sports’ Bob Pockrass responded, stating, “Because there can be three new winners, no one locked in yet. If no new winner next week, driver who is 111 points ahead of 15th on the grid would be locked in.“
Because there can be three new winners, no one locked in yet. If no new winner next week, driver who is 111 points ahead of 15th on the grid would be locked in. https://t.co/sASZXrVAc9
— Bob Pockrass (@bobpockrass) August 7, 2023
So technically, if three drivers from outside of the current top 16 clenches a win in the next three races they have a chance of derailing Harvick. But that would only be the case if Harvick wrecks out somehow in one of the next three races and Keselowski manages to move ahead of Harvick in the points. It is only then we would have Harvick roll out of the playoffs.
In a nutshell, the odds of that happening are fairly low, but not impossible. Therefore, while Harvick is in a comfortable spot at the moment, things could get not so comfortable if certain circumstances align.
Can Chase Elliott, Micheal McDowell, and Daniel Suarez win in the next races?
The big question now is whether the three drivers in contention, make it into the cut-off. Looking at the usual favorite, who has never seen a season outside of the postseason, Chase Elliott. He might have torched his hopes after wrecking out at Michigan last Monday.
However, looking at his past statistics at road course races and banking on that, one could argue that the upcoming road course races at Indy and Watkins Glen are his last hopes for a win. If he cannot get a win, it’s game over for the Hendrick Motorsports driver this season, plain and simple.
Meanwhile, Michael McDowell is the one who has the closest shot of securing himself in the playoffs. At the moment he sits 17th in the playoff standings, at a -3 playoff points deficit. Another person close to having a shot at the playoffs is the Mexican-born driver, Daniel Suarez, who currently finds himself -5 playoff points behind Ty Gibbs in the last cut-off spot. They might not even need a win, but just consistent enough finishes ahead of Bubba Wallace or Gibbs.
In fact, anyone below the cut-off from the likes of AJ Allmendinger to Alex Bowman might have a chance of grabbing that one win to secure the rest of the season for them.
