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“Not One Piece of It Mattered”: Brad Keselowski Uses Chaos Theory to Explain Real Challenge for NASCAR Drivers

Jerry Bonkowski
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Feb 14, 2025; Daytona Beach, Florida, USA; NASCAR Cup Series driver Brad Keselowski (6) talks to NASCAR Cup Series driver Chris Buescher (17) during practice for the Daytona 500 at Daytona International Speedway. Mandatory Credit: Peter Casey-Imagn Images

Many NASCAR fans perceive the sport as being nearly 40 cars playing follow-the-leader around ovals and road or street courses. Those same fans cheer or boo — depending on the case — but don’t really get into or understand the nuances of the technical aspect of the sport. And there truly is a science involved.

On the other hand, there is another group of fans who can’t get enough of learning what makes the sport tick from a technical point of view. They’re the kind of fans that driver and RFK Racing co-owner Brad Keselowski — one of the sport’s best ‘thinking man’s drivers’ — loves to explain what racing is really like.

On this week’s edition of RFK Racing’s “Backstretch Banter,” Keselowski spoke at length about how he prepares for the different nuances of Cup racing, particularly when just the slightest change can literally throw his entire game plan out of whack.

“Motorsports, not just limited to NASCAR, is different from other forms of sports in the sense that you have a significant amount of science behind it, and the science is variable,” Keselowski said. “So every week is like its own science experiment, and combine that with the ‘chaos theory’, can dramatically affect the outcome.”

Keselowski referenced last year’s spring race at Bristol Motor Speedway — the same venue NASCAR visits this weekend — as the perfect example of his “science is variable” theory.

“When we ran Bristol last year, there was a small difference in the tire on the car, and that small difference made the tires to where they could only run about 40-50 laps before they wore out and came apart,” the 2012 NASCAR Cup champion said.

“That completely changed all the dynamics of the race because the tires fell off, and instead of the pace being a 16-second lap, we were running 18-second laps.”

Two seconds may not seem like a lot in everyday life, but in NASCAR, two seconds can practically be a lifetime.

“All the science on the car, how we’re going to get around the track and even how I trained, was based on running 16-second lap times, when now we’re running 18-second lap times,” Keselowski said.

“Now the car is no longer in its optimization window, and you have to drive it differently – like there goes all my film study, all my simulator work, gone, it’s completely gone.

“This one small iteration on the tire just completely changed the entire game. I can’t think of any other sport, other than maybe a football game where it snows, where that’s the case, right?”

“Generally, traditional sports are in this really tight window of climate control and very limited variables, incredibly limited variables, and motorsports is not. I think that makes it so unique and makes the studying and the prep so much more difficult.”

It’s the Variables — and Adapting to Them — That Can Spell the Difference Between Success and Not

But when things like tire falloff and lap speeds wind up being dramatically different than what a driver, crew chief and team prepare for going into the race — even if they have a strong history of success at the same venue over the years — it’s not surprising if the outcome winds up being significantly worse than they hoped and planned for.

“The frustrating part of that is when you have a week where I really studied and prepared and have a good feel for what it takes, and then one of those small variables changes the entire thing,” Keselowski said.

“And I’m like I just wasted a week of my life, like I just wasted a week of studying and preparing, not one piece of it mattered. What am I doing?”

So, the next time you think NASCAR racing is primarily just about driving around in circles, and needing little skill or thinking other than to go fast, guys like Keselowski will show you that it’s more than just mashing the throttle, but rather it’s all about thinking, adapting, improvising and overcoming.

Post Edited By:Srijan Mandal

About the author

Jerry Bonkowski

Jerry Bonkowski

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Jerry Bonkowski is a veteran sportswriter who has worked full-time for many of the top media outlets in the world, including USA Today (15 years), ESPN.com (4+ years), Yahoo Sports (4 1/2 years), NBCSports.com (8 years) and others. He has covered virtually every major professional and collegiate sport there is, including the Chicago Bulls' six NBA championships (including heavy focus on Michael Jordan), the Chicago Bears Super Bowl XX-winning season, the Chicago White Sox and Chicago Cubs World Series championships, two of the Chicago Blackhawks' NHL titles, Tiger Woods' PGA Tour debut, as well as many years of beat coverage of the NFL, MLB, NHL and NBA for USA Today. But Jerry's most notable achievement has been covering motorsports, most notably NASCAR, IndyCar, NHRA drag racing and Formula One. He has had a passion for racing since he started going to watch drag races at the old U.S. 30 Dragstrip (otherwise known as "Where the Great Ones Run!") in Hobart, Indiana. Jerry has covered countless NASCAR, IndyCar and NHRA races and championship battles over the years. He's also the author of a book, "Trading Paint: 101 Great NASCAR Debates", published in 2010 (and he's hoping to soon get started on another book). Away from sports, Jerry was a fully sworn part-time police officer for 20 years, enjoys reading and music (especially "hair bands" from the 1980s and 1990s), as well as playing music on his electric keyboard, driving (fast, of course!), spending time with Cyndee his wife of nearly 40 years, the couple's three adult children and three grandchildren (with more to come!), and his three dogs -- including two German Shepherds and an Olde English Bulldog who thinks he's a German Shepherd.. Jerry still gets the same excitement of seeing his byline today as he did when he started in journalism as a 15-year-old high school student. He is looking forward to writing hundreds, if not thousands, of stories in the future for TheSportsRush.com, as well as interacting with readers.

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