Crew chief turned NASCAR TV analyst Steve Letarte is known for sometimes going completely off the reservation with his picks and how they will perform, whether it be a particular race or, as in this case, the NASCAR Cup playoffs.
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“There’s no season like the post-season,” Letarte said on this week’s NASCAR Inside The Race podcast. “The regular season is fine, but if you’re a fan of a team or a driver, you’re either elated because they have a chance or you’re reloading for next year.”
Indeed, this is the closest field in the 21-year playoff annuals, with only 30 points separating the No. 1 seed, Kyle Larson, from the No. 16 seed, Alex Bowman.
The playoffs begin Sunday with the Southern 500 at Darlington Raceway, and Letarte is picking a doozy of a dark horse for the first round, which features Darlington, Gateway near St. Louis, and Bristol to determine which 12 drivers will advance in the playoffs and which four drivers will be eliminated.
Letarte’s pick: Alex Bowman.
Whoa! What? Come on, you’ve gotta be kidding, right? Nope, Letarte is serious. He’s very optimistic that Bowman, who is the final seed in the 16-driver playoff grid, could be a driver who literally comes out of nowhere to make a bid for the championship.
It’s not surprising that Letarte would pick a Hendrick Motorsports driver, as Letarte spent many years as a crew chief within the Team Hendrick system. Nope, Letarte is adamant that Bowman could be the surprise driver of the playoffs.
“I actually think the 48 can [advance past the first round],” Letarte said. “I think Alex Bowman, while not flashy, did make it in. Let’s remember how he was eliminated a year ago. For the fan that has forgotten, he advanced out of the Roval when the checkered flag fell, and then, being too light in post-race inspection, eliminated him.
“As a guy who’s had these crushing emotional losses, there is a hangover to that and I think the 48 kind of has raced a little bit with that hangover and I’m waiting for the cold water to kind of splash on the face of the 48 and I’m hoping that’s what happens here in the first round for their sake because I think he has the firepower.
“I have Bowman moving out of the round of 16. I really do.”
But, there’s a caveat to Letarte’s optimism about Bowman, courtesy of Russell Wenrich of NASCAR Insights.
“Russell, give me an argument why (Bowman) can (advance past the first round,” Letarte said to Wenrich, who surprisingly actually agreed – somewhat – with Letarte’s assessment of Bowman.
“Oh, he totally can,” Wenrich said of Bowman advancing out of the first round. “Like entering Daytona before that wreck, his average finish in the last 10 races was eighth. You can make an argument he’s been the best Hendrick driver over the last several races.”
The Stats Are Against Bowman (and Letarte)
But several statistical nuances do not favor Bowman exiting the first round, also courtesy of NASCAR Insights.
- Bowman starts the playoffs at -5 heading into Sunday’s race at Darlington. That means he’s below the four-driver cutline that has to advance past the first round. Of course, a strong performance at Darlington would go a long way toward helping Bowman advance to the second round. However, Bowman’s career record at The Lady In Black leaves a lot to be desired: in the last six races at the 1.366-mile egg-shaped oval, Bowman has managed just two top 10 finishes in the Next Gen/Gen 7 car. Even worse, his best finish at Darlington in the Southern 500 with the Next Gen car is 19th.
- Bowman has an even worse track record at the second track of the first round, World Wide Technology Raceway (many still call it by its original name, Gateway Raceway) near St. Louis. Bowman does not have even one top 10 finish at the 1.25-mile oval.
- Last but not least, if Bowman tanks at Darlington and/or Gateway, he has one chance to redeem himself to move above the cutline, and that’s at the half-mile bullring of Bristol Motor Speedway. In the five races at Bristol in the Next Gen car, Bowman has 2 top-10 finishes.
