There’s no question that Kyle Larson is one of the most talented and versatile race car drivers in the world. No matter what type of vehicle it is — a NASCAR Cup car, an Indy car, a sprint or midget car — basically if anything has four tires and a steering wheel, Larson can race it.
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Unfortunately for Larson fans, he will not win Sunday’s 109th running of the Indianapolis 500 at Indianapolis Motor Speedway. Sorry to be Debbie Downer and break the bad news, but this is about reality.
While Larson’s attempt is a great story, his second and most likely last attempt at “The Double” — competing in the 500 and NASCAR’s Coca-Cola 600 later that same day — just doesn’t appear that it’ll have a fairy tale ending, at least in Indianapolis.
Charlotte and the NASCAR race could be a whole other story in terms of outcome. It’s a race that Larson has a great chance of winning, provided he doesn’t fall asleep at the wheel due to the 12-hour day ahead.
I have nothing against Larson. I respect everything he does and often marvel at some of the near-impossible passes and moves he makes in a race. But let’s take a realistic look at how he’ll perform in the 500.
First off, let’s flash back to his first run in Indy last year. Sure, he got plaudits for how well he did, but he finished in the back half of the field in 18th place. Granted, he earned Rookie of the Year honors, but that’s only because he was the highest-finishing rookie.
Secondly, for the last third of that race, Larson essentially was a non-entity when it came to having a chance to win. Josef Newgarden (who won the race for the second straight year), Pato O’Ward (who finished second), Scott Dixon, Alexander Rossi, Alex Palou — they all finished far ahead of Larson.
Larson finished higher than IndyCar veterans such as four-time Indy 500 winner Helio Castroneves (finished 20th), and Colton Herta and Will Power (23rd and 24th, respectively), among others. But other than leading just four of the race’s 200 laps, what did Larson really do in last year’s event?
Answer: he pretty much struggled to keep pace for those 200 laps, appeared like a fish out of water at times, ran a moderate pace rather than a potential race-winning pace, stayed out of trouble for the most part and was just happy to get out of Indy with the best finish he could get.
Understandably, Larson was trying to become a part of history by becoming the first NASCAR driver to attempt “The Double” in 10 years, but weather delays in Indy prevented him from getting to Charlotte in time. Not to mention the NASCAR race only went 249 of the scheduled 400 laps because of rain.
Now, let’s look at Larson’s May so far. He’s crashed twice — once in testing and once in practice. While the damage both times was mild to moderate, he admitted those were mistakes that shouldn’t have happened.
One of the top online sportsbooks, BetOnline.ag, makes O’Ward the favorite to win the 500 at 5/1 odds, defending NTT IndyCar Series champion Alex Palou is next at 11/2, followed by Scott Dixon (13/2). Even surprising pole sitter and 500 rookie Robert Shwartzman is at 8/1.
Then you’ve got Takuma Sato (9/1), two-time defending 500 winner Josef Newgarden (who is starting at the back of the 33-car field for rules infractions) is at 10/1, as is Team Penske teammate Scott McLaughlin, followed by Felix Rosenqvist at 12/1.
And then, finally, comes Larson at 16/1 odds, ninth highest of the 33 drivers that will take the green flag on Sunday. In his favor is the fact that several veteran IndyCar drivers are even lower in the odds, including 2016 Indy 500 winner Alexander Rossi (18/1), Colton Herta (25/1), Will Power (25/1, also starting at the back of the field), Castroneves (28/1) and, Graham Rahal, Ryan Hunter-Reay and Sting Ray Robb, all at 80/1. Last but not least, 10 other drivers have the lowest odds of winning, all at 100/1 each.
The seventh row is one of the most dangerous starting spots. If there is an incident going into Turn 1 on the first lap — which historically has a high-incident probability — the middle rows are usually where drivers are collected up in the resulting carnage.
My guess for where Larson will finish? Again, I wish him nothing but the best, but 20th is the realistic expectation. But don’t take my word for it.
One of Larson’s former rivals in NASCAR Cup, Kevin Harvick, also wishes Larson well, but says if you’re a betting man or woman, put your money on another driver.
“I don’t think he has a chance to win at Indy,” Harvick said Tuesday on his Happy Hour podcast. “Think, with the way they qualified and all the things that have happened this year, I think that hope is out of the picture, personally.
“I think he can come back and be a real contender at the Coke 600 and just being able to finish on the lead lap at Indy and run all 1,000 miles and check that box is probably the most realistic goal for this year.”
Possibility or not, there is only one way to find out how Kyle Larson fares on his “Double” attempt this time.
