Up until the Dallas Mavericks won the NBA Draft Lottery last night, no topic could get basketball fans as animated as the 3-point revolution. Analytics is king now, and attempts from outside the arc have skyrocketed in recent years as teams have done the math and determined that even a bad 3-point shot is better than a good midrange attempt.
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LeBron James has been in the league for 22 years, and he’s watched the game evolve. He’s evolved along with it, as he’s attempted more threes per game in each of the last seven seasons than he did in any of his previous 15.
LeBron is one of the highest IQ players to ever play the game, so you’d expect to find him near the front lines of the game’s latest innovation. Still, he’s been a somewhat reluctant participant, which is also not surprising, given how unstoppable he’s been at getting to the basket throughout his career.
During a Q&A session with reporters before a game against the Kings in December, LeBron seemed to show his disdain for the 3-point craze when he said, “Our game, there’s a lot of f***** threes being shot.”
The latest episode of Mind the Game dropped today, and its title, “Why the Mid-Range Matters So Much in the Playoffs,” seems at first to contradict that comment. As is usually the case on arguably the smartest basketball podcast out there, though, a nuanced discussion between LeBron and Steve Nash followed that proved not only why the midrange matters but how the 3-point shot revolution has made it even more important than ever.
The playoffs have proven there’s more to winning than the 3-point shot
The Boston Celtics won the NBA title last year while attempting the most threes in the league. They again led the NBA this year and only increased their long-range output by going from 42.0 attempts per game to an NBA record 47.2. It’s come back to bite them in the playoffs this time around, though, as they’ve been ice cold against the New York Knicks.
The Celtics are down 3-1 and one game away from elimination after losing last night’s Game 4 at Madison Square Garden. Their hopes of repeating are on life support after Jayson Tatum went down with what appeared to be an Achilles injury. Shooting 25-100 from three in the first two games certainly didn’t help.
Contrast that with the Knicks, who have been killing Boston in the midrange with Jalen Brunson, Karl-Anthony Towns and Mikal Bridges. Nash mentioned Brunson when he discussed the guys keeping the midrange game alive, along with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Nikola Jokic, Luka Doncic and Kevin Durant. “Where would the Knicks be without Jalen Brunson?” he asked. “That’s the solve.”
As teams shoot more and more threes, defenses adjust by extending farther upcourt. That opens up pockets of space in the midrange, and the very best players are able to exploit that, especially in the playoffs when the increased pressure and physicality make it harder for long-range shots to fall.
There’s no denying that the 3-pointer has become the biggest weapon in the game, but teams can’t succeed if they don’t have other ways to attack too. The Bulls, Jazz, Spurs, Nets and Wizards also ranked in the top 10 in threes attempted per game this year, but you don’t see them playing right now. The Celtics and Warriors were both in the top four, and they’re each one game away from elimination.
The Wolves and Thunder are the only other remaining playoff teams in the top 10 in attempted threes, but they have other ways to win. As Nash pointed out, SGA has had the most efficient midrange season of all time. Anthony Edwards and Julius Randle relentlessly attack the basket for Minnesota, even though both are also capable of making it rain from outside.
LeBron agreed with Nash’s take on the importance of the midrange game, but I don’t see that as contradicting his comments from December. Watching two teams mindlessly shooting threes isn’t entertaining to watch, and it’s also not that effective. LeBron’s comments reflect that, but his and Nash’s cerebral approach to the game show that when it comes to winning, the midrange game will always have an important place, especially in the playoffs.
