“Death of Mid-Major Cinderella Runs”: Former Duke Champion Highlights How NIL Will Rob Us of March Madness Excitement

The first two rounds of the NCAA Tournament are in the books, and although it’s been an exciting tournament in a lot of ways so far, it’s definitely been a chalk-filled affair. Seven different SEC teams are in the Sweet 16, and there are no mid-majors or Cinderellas to be found anywhere. Only one double-digit seed is still dancing, and that’s 10-seed Arkansas, who is coached by John Calipari and loaded with highly recruited talent.

The glass slipper doesn’t exactly fit the Razorbacks. With only the big boys left to battle it out, is this the death of the mid-major Cinderella?

Former Duke legend and current ESPN analyst Jay Williams seems to think so. Williams appeared on Get Up this morning to discuss the tournament to this point, and he said that the reason we shouldn’t expect to see many mid-majors make a deep run anymore is that NIL has completely changed the game.

NIL, of course, is short for “name, image, and likeness,” which is basically a shorthand way to say that paying players is legal now. This has made life for mid-majors even more difficult in the past, because now, if one of their players shows out on a national stage, it’s only a matter of time until a program from a major conference is able to offer him big money to transfer.

The little guys don’t have the money to compete. “When I talk to mid-major coaches, the consistent complaint I always hear from them is retention,” Williams said. “We can’t hold onto players because these Power Four schools are just clipping them and taking them away from us.”

NIL has further separated the haves from the have-nots

Big schools have always had an advantage over the little guys. The best coaches often start at mid-majors, then once they find success, they use that as a stepping stone to move up. Players have always transferred to bigger schools once they’ve shown that they can play, but the ability to legally pay players has made transferring much easier and more prevalent.

Given how much revenue is made on college sports, it’s completely justified that players are paid, but the mid-major Cinderella seems to be an unfortunate casualty of that new reality.

Look at McNeese as an example. The Cowboys upset 5-seed Clemson in the first round, and before they had even played Purdue in the Round of 32, their coach Will Wade was already confirmed to be taking the NC State job.

Wade is the epitome of the way the current system works. He even said after his first-round win, “This is the free market of college basketball,” and that his players had asked if they could follow him if he took a job at a major conference.

Williams has a point, and Wade’s words and actions are proof. Still, it’s too early to say that Cinderella’s carriage has permanently turned into a pumpkin. Just last year, Duquesne, James Madison, Grand Canyon, Yale and Oakland all won at least one tournament game. Each of those schools was an 11-seed or worse.

In 2023, we saw both 15-seed Princeton and a 16-seed Fairleigh Dickinson win a game. Princeton even made the Sweet 16. The year before that, 15-seed St. Peter’s went all the way to the Elite Eight. All of this happened after NIL came into play in 2021.

It’s definitely more difficult than ever for a mid-major to be successful, but the magic of March Madness isn’t going anywhere. Top mid-major players will certainly be poached, but the built-in advantage these little schools have is continuity and upperclassmen experience. Major conference schools that import a new transfer class each year are at a disadvantage in that respect, even if they do have a talent advantage.

Cinderella may have taken the year off, but I’d bet she returns to the Big Dance in a big way next year.