Alarming Stats Suggest the NFL Has Entered the Dark Age of Passing Game

Despite Commissioner Roger Goodell’s continuous efforts to make the NFL a passing league, stats from last week show that his efforts have fallen short.

It’s barely been two weeks since the 2024 NFL season started, and we have already reached record lows in passing numbers. For starters, teams in Week 1 averaged just passing 188.3 yards. To put this into context, in the early 90s, each club was averaging over 200 passing yards per game.

In fact, based on historical data, the league’s average passing yards peaked in 2015, when teams were averaging a whopping 243 yards. One might argue that it was the era of Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, and Russell Wilson, all in their primes. But a valid counterargument is how lax rules have become in the favor of attackers since then.

QBs have never been more privileged by the rules and referees than they are today, yet they are struggling to pass effectively. The worst part is that this problem is prevalent even among the top teams harboring the best talents in the NFL.

Just so we understand:

The TOP 5 NFL passing offenses through two weeks are a combined 3-7.

The TOP 5 NFL running offenses are a combined 7-3.

NFL defenses have caught up to the passing game.

This isn’t a passing league anymore. If you can’t run the football, you’re dead.

— Nate Jackson (@NathanSerious) September 17, 2024

Over the first two weeks of this season, the top 5 NFL offenses have a combined 3-7 record in comparison to the running offenses having an inverse 7-3. This alarming statistic raises a pivotal question — are we slowly seeing the end of the passing game in the NFL?

NFL is a running game today

One of the biggest transformations that the league has seen over the years is in the physicality of the newer generation of players. With massive leaps in nutrition and fitness training, players today are faster and stronger than ever.

While there isn’t empirical data to back this claim, it wouldn’t be surprising to see this phenomenon result in QBs having less time to react than ever. With defenders quick to rush, an accurate throw in milliseconds is the need of the hour. To tackle this issue, most QBs today have started running.

In layman’s words — dual-threat profiles are players who can run well and pass at the same time, unlike a yesteryear star like Ben Roethlisberger, who was an elite passer but couldn’t run to save his life. What lends this theory credence is the rise in Expected Points Added via rushing.

In fact, rushing EPAs now has far surpassed the EPAs from passing plays. This simply proves one thing: we are in the midst of an evolution of the NFL from a passing league to a running league. Thus, it’s important for the game to have old-school icons like Patric Mahomes who safeguard the art of passing. After all, what’s a QB if he can’t pass?