So far, the 2024 offseason has been nothing short of a roller coaster ride, with four clubs trading their starting QBs for draft picks. The Steelers traded Kenny Pickett to the Eagles along with a 2024 fourth-round pick (No. 120) in exchange for a 2024 third-round pick (No. 98) and two 2025 seventh-round picks.
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The Commanders traded Sam Howell to the Seahawks for a 2024 3rd-round pick (#78) and a 2024 5th-round pick (#152). However, Washington also had to part with their 2024 4th round pick (#102) and 2024 6th round pick (#179). Moreover, the Patriots traded their first-round QB Mac Jones to the Jaguars for a mere 6th-round pick in 2024.
And the most astonishing trade came for Justin Fields who despite being the Bears’ 11th pick in the 2021 draft was traded to the Steelers for a solitary 2025 6th-round pick upgradeable to a 4th-round pick if Fields plays 51% of 2024 snaps. Many expected Fields to fetch at least a 2nd round pick this year and a late conditional 2025 pick. However, the Bears have to stay contended with a solitary 6th-round pick, leaving many wondering why both Pickett and Howell fetched better draft capital given they were equally poor last season.
John Middlekauff, during his recent chat on The Colin Cowherd Podcast, explained why Pickett and Howell got their teams a better deal than Fields and Mac Jones. Middlekauff adds that attaching a draft value to a player depends upon many factors, all bearing weight on the player’s value. He asserts that the draft, in reality, doesn’t work like fantasy football. There are factors like the length of contracts, and the salary cap, and once the Jaguars decided not to overpay for Mac Jones and the Patriots accepted their offer of only a 6th-round pick for him, it devalued the contracts of all other players who had just a year left on their contracts and set the tone for the market. He said,
“The contracts and the money — this is not the fantasy football in a vacuum. There are actual contracts, there’s a salary cap,” followed by, “And that was the problem — once Mac Jones went for a 6th-round pick, he has shown play at a higher level than Justin Fields, but that was the comp for him. They were never getting a third-round pick, and that was going rate.”
John asserted that Howell, Pickett, and even Trey Lance were traded for better comp picks because contracts matter. Fields and Jones have only a year left on their contracts and will be free agents, which decreases their value. On the other hand, both Pickett and Howell have two years left on their contracts.
“Contracts matter and the reason Sam Howell and Kenny Pickett went for more than Justin Fields and Jones, those guys have one year left on their contracts. Neither of them gets the fifth-year option, meaning they are free agents at the end of the year,” John said. “The Philadelphia Eagles did a pick swap from third to fourth round because they got a guy on a 2-year contract, making $7 million. Even, Trey Lance went for more than these guys because Jerry got him for two seasons.”
Now that the Bears have traded Fields, they will be pinning all their hopes on Caleb Williams and he could potentially end up saving their GM Ryan Poles’s job.
Is Caleb Williams the Answer for the Chicago Bears?
Ryan Poles decided to put all his eggs in one basket when he decided to trade Justin Fields to the Steelers. The Bears are planning to build their squad around Caleb and have been active in free agency, bringing in the likes of Keenan Allen, D’Andre Swift, and others to strengthen the offensive front. Middlekauff believes Caleb can save Poles’s job and Chicago’s season by being the top 10 QB in the league next season, something the Bears never had for decades. He said,
“He doesn’t even need to become Patrick Mahomes. If he just becomes a top 10 QB which the Bears never really had definitely in my lifetime. It’s a game-changer for the franchise. Once you get that number-one overall pick and he’s so clearly such a talented player.”
Poles made a franchise-altering trade with the Panthers in 2023 when he traded Chicago’s 1st overall pick in the 2023 draft to Carolina for their 2023 draft’s 9th overall pick, the 61st overall pick, a 2024 1st round pick, a 2025 2nd round pick, and WR D. J. Moore.
Despite all the concerns about Williams‘ potential success or the risk of him becoming another first-round bust, the stage is all set for him to be a superstar that the franchise has been deprived of for decades. No Bears shot-caller has ever thrown for over 4000 yards and given Caleb’s prolific performances in college, he could become the first quarterback to accomplish that feat.
