With four rushing touchdowns and three through the air, Jayden Daniels has already found the end zone one more time than Patrick Mahomes. And exactly the same tally as Lamar Jackson’s, the reigning league MVP. He also boasts a better completion percentage than both of those quarterbacks.
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So, what are the chances that the second overall pick continues this trajectory and snags the MVP award, something never done before by a rookie in the Super Bowl era?
While discussing this topic on the Pat McAfee Show, former NFL executive Michael Lombardi first showered the rookie with praise—and rightfully so. He pointed out that people have already started noticing how Jayden’s season mirrors what Peyton Manning did during his MVP campaigns. Furthermore, the QB has managed to mask “all the deficiencies” within the team. And that too, in such a short time.
Lombardi further noted that the O-line is also doing its job to protect the quarterback, a feat that hasn’t been common for the Commanders franchise in recent years. They have a Super Bowl drought even longer than that of the Cowboys, along with a playoff drought of three years, thanks in part to this very issue. No quarterback has been able to come to the franchise and be consistent.
But things have begun to fall into place for the club this year. Kliff Kingsbury’s air raid offense is thriving with Daniels at the helm, and head coach Dan Quinn has done an exceptional job with the defense.
This, overall, has created a perfect environment for a rookie to thrive, and Jayden has done just that so far.
Pat McAfee shares a similar sentiment, noting during the show that the team as a whole has already become quite fond of their quarterback. Punting just once in their last three games is proof of that camaraderie.
With these positives in mind, it can easily be argued that Jayden has the best chance in the world to win the MVP this year. His performance so far, coupled with a solid roster around him, supports this notion. But there are still some gaping holes that the team needs to fill.
The defense has performed well in the past four games, and after Week 6, they will face three opponents they should be able to outperform: the Panthers, Bears, and Giants. However, when comparing this year’s performance to the 2023 season, the secondary ranks very similarly.
And considering that the club hosts the Browns this week and faces the Ravens next, two of the toughest opponents on their schedule, they could quickly find themselves at 3-3. With that, it may also diminish Jayden’s chances of winning the MVP.
Jayden’s chances of winning the MVP
According to the updated NFL MVP odds, shared by Dov Kleiman on X, Daniels is nowhere to be seen on the list. Patrick Mahomes (+275) holds the top spot, followed by Josh Allen (+375) and CJ Stroud (+950). Ravens’ Lamar Jackson (+970) sits in the 4th place, while Sam Darnold (+1070) is in 5th.
Only if we look at FanDuel’s sportsbook, Daniels has found a place in the 10th position. Other signal-callers like Jared Goff, Brock Purdy, Baker Mayfield, and Joe Burrow, stand before the rookie quarterback.
Clearly, Jayden has some of the greatest quarterbacks to outperform before winning the MVP in his rookie year. As the saying goes, nothing worth having comes easy.
On top of this, Daniels has yet to face the top defenses of the league. A lot can change in the next 13 weeks.
But for now, the rookie out of LSU must keep his eyes on the prize: the next opponent. If Jayden and the Commanders can defeat the Browns this Sunday and the Ravens in the following week, these odds would change very quickly.
