Last year, C.J. Stroud keyed a turnaround in the Houston Texans organization as he led a team that was 3-13-1 in 2022 to a 10-7 record and an AFC South title in 2023. Jayden Daniels didn’t win his division as a rookie in 2024, but he did win a few more games than Stroud did.
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The debate about who had the better freshmen campaign between these adjacent and elite QBs was bound to surface. Elle Duncan believes Daniels has already called the game.
While speaking on First Take on Thursday, the ESPN pundit argued that Daniels has already eclipsed Stroud’s rookie campaign. This, despite the fact that Stroud won a playoff game last year, and Daniels is an underdog on the road against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers this weekend. However, the situation Daniels is in and the way he’s won plays a key factor.
“I think he already has surpassed C.J. Stroud’s rookie campaign… What Jayden Daniels has been able to do on a team that has basically new ownership, almost an entirely new front office, new head coach, new coordinators… This was a Washington Commanders team that hadn’t had a double-digit winning season since 2012… I don’t care if he gets boat-raced by the Bucs, I already think that what Jayden Daniels has been able to do is one of the greatest rookie campaigns we’ve seen.”
.@elleduncanESPN believes Jayden Daniels has already surpassed C.J. Stroud's rookie campaign.
Do you agree? 🤔 pic.twitter.com/trLRakiidc
— First Take (@FirstTake) January 9, 2025
Daniels is now a -20,000 favorite to win this year’s Offensive Rookie of the Year award, following Stroud in doing so. So, is Duncan correct? Well, her point about the situation both franchises were in is definitely a strong factor in Daniels’ favor. But let’s take a look at the numbers too.
Stroud did win a division title, but he was 9-6 as a starter, while Daniels went 12-5. Stroud threw for over 500 more yards in a couple fewer games, but Daniels threw 25 TDs to Stroud’s 23. Daniels threw nine interceptions to Stroud’s five, though their passer ratings (100.1 for Daniels, 100.8 for Stroud) are essentially identical.
The big difference is in Daniels’ ability to pull wins out of a hat late in games. Stroud also had only one 4th-quarter comeback in his rookie year. Daniels had four, which is tied for 2nd-most all-time for a rookie. Oh, and let’s not forget his running ability. Stroud’s effect on the game via his legs is negligible, but Daniels is arguably the 2nd or 3rd-most dangerous QB on the ground.
We agree with Duncan: the Bucs game will not change our view that he’s had a better freshman year. The Baker Mayfield-led Tampa Bay Buccaneers are a much tougher foe on the road than the Joe Flacco-led Cleveland Browns that Stroud beat at home last year. Daniels’ clash with Mayfield will be the main course on Wild Card Sunday. They kickoff in prime-time at 8PM in Florida, the third and final broadcast of the triple-header.
But, now that we’ve compared those two burgeoning star QBs, we have to discuss a peculiarity with the Offensive Rookie of the Year award over the last two years.
One would think that when a tight end breaks the single-season NFL rookie record for receptions, they’d be a runaway Offensive Rookie of the Year. However, that—plus the rookie tight end receiving yards record, which had stood for 60-odd years—was not enough for Brock Bowers.
Yet, for the second straight season—Puka Nacua had set a record with 105 receptions in 2023, and Bowers bested him with 112 in 2024—it seems a record-breaking receiver will be beaten to the award by a quarterback (C.J. Stroud and Jayden Daniels) who led their team to the playoffs. Not to take anything away from those signal callers, but this really is a quarterback’s league, isn’t it?
